Seasonal Adjustment Factors:
- Week ended Sept. 21, 2013 — 83.1
- Week ended Sept. 22, 2012 — 82.7
- Week ended Sept. 14, 2013 — 271,747 (before revision, which appears to be to 272,918 per DOL’s perhaps prematurely updated history)
- Week ended Sept. 22, 2012 — 303,685
For claims to be a seasonally adjusted 325K or lower, raw claims will need to be 270K or lower (270K divided by .831 is 325K, rounded). That seems on the unlikely side, but … The report has literally been self-admitted garbage for the past two weeks thanks to computer snafus in California and one other state, so an attempt at a prediction is in my view a waste of time.
The report will be here at 8:30 a.m.
UPDATE: The number is 305,000. I’ll look at it after I look over GDP.
DOL’s report (permanent link):
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA
In the week ending September 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 305,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 310,000. The 4-week moving average was 308,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 315,000.
… UNADJUSTED DATA
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 253,668 in the week ending September 21, a decrease of 19,250 from the previous week. There were 303,685 initial claims in the comparable week in 2012.
The Associated Press is reporting DOL’s assertion that the backlogs have been cleared. If the numbers stand up in revisions, raw claims are as low as they’ve been since September 2007. I’m skeptical. It’s a product of my first name.
Zero Hedge notes that “Continuing claims ticked up by the most in 2 months.”