Unlike the monthly Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which at last report will be not be released tomorrow if the partial government shutdown continues, the unemployment claims report is set to come out today.
Prediction: Bloomberg has 315,000 seasonally adjusted claims.
Seasonal adjustment factors:
- Week ended Sept. 28, 2013 — 81.8
- Week ended Sept. 29, 2012 — 81.7
- Week ended Sept. 21, 2013 — 253,668 (before revision)
- Week ended Sept. 29, 2012 — 301,054
For seasonally adjusted claims to come in at 315,000 or below, raw claims will have to be 258,000 or below ( divided by .818 is 258K, rounded). That seems ambitious, but who knows, given the computer-driven confusion in several states during the past few weeks. DOL said last week that they were caught up. We’ll see.
The report will be here at 8:30 a.m.
8:32 a.m.: DOL’s web site has a top-of-page “NOTICE” saying that “Due to suspension of Federal government services, this website is not being regularly updated.” We’ll see if that stops the unemployment claims report from going up.
8:35 a.m.: Well, here it is (permanent link) —
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA
In the week ending September 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 308,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 307,000. The 4-week moving average was 305,000, a decrease of 3,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 308,750.
… UNADJUSTED DATA
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 252,092 in the week ending September 28, a decrease of 3,018 from the previous week. There were 301,054 initial claims in the comparable week in 2012.
This is pretty good news.
Yesterday on the ADP conference call, Mark Zandi predicated that September’s unemployment rate would come in at 7.2%, a slight reduction from August’s 7.3%. Today’s claims news is consistent with that in the land of conventional wisdom, though I’m not sold on the idea that claims and the unemployment rate are meaningfully interrelated.
Of course, barring an agreement to end the shutdown, we’re not going to find out for a while.