Initial Unemployment Claims (101713): 358K SA; Raw Claims Less Than 2% Below Same Week Last Year; Processing Issues Make Analysis Futile
Over the next several days we’re probably going to find out that the economy has performed marginally during the 17% government shutdown for reasons unrelated to it.
Here’s the opening round from the Department of Labor:
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA
In the week ending October 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 358,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 373,000. The 4-week moving average was 336,500, an increase of 11,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 324,750.
… UNADJUSTED DATA
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 357,041 in the week ending October 12, an increase of 20,902 from the previous week. There were 362,730 initial claims in the comparable week in 2012.
Predictions were for 335,000 seasonally adjusted claims. But Bloomberg says that California is still working through a backlog of claims, and I guess no one cares enough to post these claims to the week in which they were actually filed, making attempts at analysis futile.
So I’m not going to try.
UPDATE: However, glutton for punishment that I am, I’ll try to look at previous weeks without California. Here goes.
Let’s start with what today’s report says about the week ended October 5:
CA +33,654 Increase reflects backlog of claims which could not be processed previously.
MD +4,409 No comment.
OH +4,122 Layoffs in manufacturing.
MI +4,066 Increase reflects return to full processing after computer system implementation.
VA +3,927 Layoffs in professional and technical services.
WA +2,358 Layoffs in public administration, arts, entertainment and recreation, and professional, scientific and technical service industries.
NY +2,136 Layoffs in the public administration, real estate and rental and leasing, and manufacturing industries.
KY +2,120 No comment.
MN +1,939 Layoffs in public administration.
MA +1,904 Layoffs in the trade, health care and social service, and manufacturing industries.
AR +1,834 No comment.
GA +1,598 Layoffs in the administration and support and manufacturing industries.
HI +1,508 No comment.
AZ +1,467 No comment.
TX +1,425 Layoffs in the support services, finance, health care and social assistance industries, and manufacturing.
FL +1,393 Layoffs in the construction, trade, service and manufacturing industries.
PA +1,032 Layoffs in the construction, retail trade, and finance and insurance industries.
MT +1,019 Increase due to seasonal layoffs.
NJ +1,004 Layoffs in the service and manufacturing industries.
That’s a large list of significant increases. Other than CA and MI, which are processing-related, only Minnesota specifically represents government employees, and it could be state and local, not federal.
There is no apparently no way to look further, because unless I just couldn’t find it, DOL stopped listing state data during the shutdown.
UPDATE 2: In the comments, Steve notes that individual state archives have been updated. But as far as I can tell, the one-by-one list of states one would need to get a handle on the situation in the country as a whole hasn’t been.