November 7, 2013

Initial Unemployment Claims (110713): 336K SA, Raw Claims Marginally Up From Previous Week

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 7:31 am

Predictions: Perhaps reflecting the data integrity problems of the past month or so, Bloomberg doesn’t have one, though it believes that tomorrow’s jobs report will show 120,000 jobs added and an unemployment rate of 7.3 percent (up from 7.2 percent).

Business Insider has a prediction of 335,000 seasonally adjusted claims.

Seasonal Adjustment Factors:

  • Week ended Nov. 2, 2013 — 97.3
  • Week ended Nov. 3, 2012 — 99.6

Raw Claims:

  • Week ended Oct. 26, 2013 — 317,580 (before likely revision)
  • Week ended Nov. 3, 2012 — 361,800

To stay at last week’s seasonally adjusted level of 340,000 (before it likely gets revised), this week’s raw claims will need to be 331,000 or lower (331K divided by 97.3 is 340K, rounded). That would mean raw claims about 4% higher than last week. If today’s seasonally reading isn’t a dip of 10,000 or more from last week, it should be considered a disappointment.

The report will be here at 8:30 a.m. I’m going to concentrate on this morning’s GDP result before looking in any kind of detail at unemployment claims.

HERE IT IS (permanent link):

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending November 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 336,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 345,000. The 4-week moving average was 348,250, a decrease of 9,250 from the previous week’s revised average of 357,500.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 327,074 in the week ending November 2, an increase of 4,222 from the previous week. There were 361,800 initial claims in the comparable week in 2012.

The upward revision to last week of 5,000 was one of the largest in quite some time.

Assuming next week gets revised upward by a few thousand, we’re still basically in the 340K-350K range. Over four years after the recession’s official end, that’s unacceptable.

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4 Comments

  1. So much for the end-of-summer 325K average.

    I really have little idea what to expect on tomorrow’s jobs report.

    Comment by steveegg — November 7, 2013 @ 9:02 am

  2. Since it’s based on the week containing the 12th, it should show an uptick in the uenmployment rate b/c of furloughed workers.

    On the jobs added front, I’m seeing 100K-130K, obviously before reactions to today’s reports.

    Comment by Tom — November 7, 2013 @ 9:08 am

  3. [...] reported weekly unemployment claims were a seasonally adjusted 336,000, and averaged just over to 350,000 during the five work weeks containing October business [...]

    Pingback by BizzyBlog — November 8, 2013 @ 8:13 am

  4. [...] — 330,000 seasonally adjusted claims, down from last week’s 336,000 (before likely [...]

    Pingback by BizzyBlog — November 14, 2013 @ 7:21 am

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