November 14, 2013

Comparing NYT Positions on Obama’s False ‘You Can Keep Your Plan-Doctor-Provider’ Guarantee to Bush and WMDs

A commenter at my post yesterday (“TomsonaNonGrata”) about how a pair of New York Times reporters characterized President Barack Obama’s false guarantee to Americans that “If you like your plan-doctor-provider, you can keep your plan-doctor-provider” as an “incorrect promise” — because they couldn’t work up the nerve to call it a lie — noted that “All these people (in the press) that were so quick to call Bush a liar about WMD, when he was basing his decision on the intelligence available at the time, now can’t bring themselves to call Obama a liar, when he specifically knew policies could/would be cancelled, and kept saying otherwise.”

Point well-taken, especially given what the intrepid tweet trackers at Twitchy relayed from Washington Examiner columnist Charlie Spiering. Spiering fouund a Times editorial from 2008 which commented on the George W. Bush and weapons of mass destruction:

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NewsBusted (111213)

Filed under: NewsBusted — Tom @ 8:49 am

Here we go:

TOPICS:
– Veterans Day
– President Obama
– Obamacare
– Terry McAuliffe
– Chris Christie
– Chris Matthews
– Iran
– Toronto Mayor Tom Ford
– UC Berkeley
– Carrie Underwood and Brad Paisley

Best Line: “During last week’s Country Music Association Awards, Carrie Underwood and Brad Paisley sang a song making fun of Obamacare. No surprise there: Celebrities always get together and sing after a disaster happens.”

Initial Unemployment Claims (111413): 339K SA; Raw Claims Up 7.4% Over Previous Week

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 7:20 am

Predictions:

Seasonal adjustment factors:

  • Week ended Nov. 9, 2013 — 105.6
  • Week ended Nov. 10, 2012 — 106.2

Raw claims:

  • Week ended Nov. 2, 2013 (before likely revision) — 327,074
  • Week ended Nov. 10, 2012 — 478,543
  • Week ended Nov. 3, 2012 — 361,800

For the predictions to come true, raw claims will need to be 348,000 or lower (348K divided by 105.6 is 330K, rounded).

I listed two weeks of raw claims above because there was a huge week-to-week jump in claims last year which was blamed on Superstorm Sandy. (It was a factor, but in my view not the entire explanation.)

As to today, I would hope that raw claims aren’t much different from last week. Today’s seasonally adjusted number really needs to be 315,000 or lower, which would be the result if raw claims are 333K or lower.

The report will be here at 8:30.

HERE IT IS (permanent link): This is very disappointing —

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending November 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 339,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 341,000. The 4-week moving average was 344,000, a decrease of 5,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 349,750.

… UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 357,836 in the week ending November 9, an increase of 26,485 from the previous week. There were 478,543 initial claims in the comparable week in 2012.

There’s really no good reason why raw claims shouldn’t have held steady in the past week. Instead, they went up by 7.4% before next week’s likely upward revision.

As noted before the report came out, this year’s seasonal adjustment factor should have caused this week’s seasonally adjusted number to come in way lower than last week. Instead, it was basically the same, and has a good chance of being a little bit higher after next week’s upward revision.

The upward revision to last week was also pretty significant (+5K).

This is a specific sign of non-improvement in the job market.

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UPDATE: There’s a qualifier — “Applications for five states were estimated because of the Veterans Day holiday-shortened week, the Labor Department said.”

UPDATE 2: Zero Hedge — “The initial jobless claims print remains near 4 month-highs (adjusted to for the prior glitch unreality).”

Thursday Off-Topic (Moderated) Open Thread (111413)

Filed under: Lucid Links — Tom @ 6:06 am

This open thread will stay at or near the top today. Rules are here. Possible comment fodder may follow. Other topics are also fair game.

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Apparently blaming Germany for not following the rest of the world over a Keynesian cliff has become all the rage — “The EU is still struggling to overcome the economic crisis and many countries are reportedly starting to blame Germany for not stimulating domestic market demand.” The U.S. government, which has played a heavy role in creating the world’s real fiscal cliff, arguably got the ball rolling in late October.

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At Hot Air last Friday: “New ObamaCare website czar on repairs: We’re a long way from where we need to be.” The problem is supposedly that “higher volumes of visitors are exposing new capacity and software issues.” Well, that higher volume may be due to the fact that “(an) Obamacare Flaw Allows Anyone on Earth to Fraudulently Enroll Through Healthcare.gov.”

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At RedState: “Think about it. The Manhattan Project took less time to complete than just the website part of Obamacare.” And three guys over a weekend built what people need to shop for policies without getting digitally strip-searched first being a precondition for getting information.

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Roger Simon at PJ Media: “What do John Kerry and Ayatollah Khamenei Have in Common?” Three things:

  • [T]hey’re both billionaires who didn’t earn the money themselves. … Kerry claims he would never allow the Iranians to have the bomb in the current negotiations (until the French said he did just that — ignoring the Arak heavy water reactor, which is a literal plutonium bomb factory).
  • [T]hey both want Iran to have the bomb, but neither of them will admit it.
  • [T]hey don’t much care for the state of Israel.

Simon goes on to explain that Barack Obama has these same three affinities.

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Advancing tyranny: “EPA Stealthily Propels Toward ‘Massive Power Grab of Private Property Across the U.S.’”

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Orwell Lives Here: At HealthCare.gov, the tax penalty for not having health insurance (it IS a tax, according to the Supremes) is called the “individual shared responsibility payment.”

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I’m late to this, but want to note relief at John Cranley’s victory in the Cincinnati Mayor’s race, given that the alternative was hardened radical turned corruptocrat Roxanne Qualls. Now let’s see if Cranley can follow through and kill the wasteful, pie-in-the-sky streetcar project and do something to reduce the damage of the ridiculously one-sided (against the city) parking operations deal.

Unfortunately, the voters rejected pension reform. Cranley ran and lost against Steve Chabot in the 2006 1st District congressional race as a Soros-supported lefist. While it seems that he can slay the highly visible streetcar dragon, he’s going to have a hard time working up the nerve for real workforce reform, without the city will continue to head inexorably towards insolvency.

Positivity: Misawa Air Base Embraces Brothers’ Reunion

Filed under: Positivity,Taxes & Government,US & Allied Military — Tom @ 6:01 am

From Misawa Air Base in Japan:

Posted 11/11/2013
Updated 11/12/2013

Exiting the breezeway at the Misawa City Airport near Misawa Air Base, Japan, Jonah affectionately embraced nearly everyone in sight, including his brother, Airman 1st Class Jared Skrove.

Gatherings are commonplace for members of the military and their families, but the reason for the Skrove’s reunion is far from ordinary.

Jonah is a self-described nerdy, obnoxious 17-year-old senior at Zimmerman High School in Minnesota who is battling a life-threatening bone cancer. Diagnosed with osteosarcoma last fall, Jonah was given the opportunity through the Make-A-Wish Foundation to do anything or go anywhere he wanted.

Instead of going to Disney or meeting a star athlete, Jonah wished to travel half-way around the world to see his brother, an electrical and environmental maintenance specialist with the 13th Aircraft Maintenance Unit. The foundation made sure his parents and sister also had seats on the flight.

“I haven’t seen him since Christmas, and he’s basically my best friend,” Jonah said. “I didn’t think they’d be able to send everybody – I thought it would maybe be like one or two of us. I was kind of dreading having to pick between parents, but they sent all of us – it was very generous.”

Jonah’s cancer was detected in his right leg in September 2012 while his brother was in Air Force basic military training. His family felt the news would hinder Airman Skrove’s progress in BMT, so he wasn’t told about the diagnosis until after he graduated.

“We held back a lot from him because we didn’t want it to interfere with what he was going through and how excited he was going to be about graduating, and that was tough because they’re so close,” said their father, Jeff Skrove. “We worried about how Jared would take it – I think he had several tough times at that stage in his service.”

While Airman Skrove was at technical training, Jonah’s right leg was amputated below the knee, raising his survival rate from 50 to 70 percent. Despite a tight, strict training schedule, Airman Skrove’s instructors made sure he had time to cope.

“I was a mess,” Airman Skrove said. “When I got to call him after surgery and I heard how much pain he was in, I was devastated. It was hard, but knowing that there are better times to come…that’s what I’m looking forward to.”

The Skroves didn’t have to wait too long for a pick-me-up. Every 38 minutes the Make-A-Wish Foundation grants the wish of a 3- to 17-year-old child who is battling a life-threatening illness. Jonah was notified his wish would come true earlier this spring.

However, Airman Skrove’s first sergeant, Senior Master Sgt. Harry Nichols, only found out about the Skrove family’s trip two days before they arrived here. Unbeknownst to Airman Skrove, Nichols has lost two immediate family members to cancer, and has a soft place in his heart for survivors. The first sergeant quickly began formulating a plan for the Skroves. …

Go here for the rest of the story.