December 6, 2013

The November Employment Situation (120613); 203K Job Adds, Unemployment at 7.0%

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 7:21 am

Econ catchup:

Predictions:

  • Bloomberg — 185,000 seasonally adjusted jobs added, unemployment rate drops to 7.2% from 7.3% in October.
  • Reuters — 180,000 jobs, 7.2% unemployment.

Not Seasonally Adjusted Benchmarks:

Here is what things have been like in Aug.-Dec. since 2000:

NSAandSAjobAdds2000to1013

An acceptably recovering economy showing genuine improvement should have generated 450,000 overall jobs in November, and 375,000 in the private sector. (UPDATE: But we also have to look at job quality and the part-time/full-time breakout before being impressed even if the benchmarks are met.)

We’ll see what the Bureau of Labor Statistics has to say here at 8:30.

HERE IT IS (permanent link to full HTML): Looks like another month of drop-outs, but let’s look closer —

The unemployment rate declined from 7.3 percent to 7.0 percent in November, and total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 203,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in transportation and warehousing, health care, and manufacturing.

Household Survey Data

Both the number of unemployed persons, at 10.9 million, and the unemployment rate, at 7.0 percent, declined in November. Among the unemployed, the number who reported being on temporary layoff decreased by 377,000. This largely reflects the return to work of federal employees who were furloughed in October due to the partial government shutdown.

… The civilian labor force rose by 455,000 in November, after declining by 720,000 in October. The labor force participation rate changed little (63.0 percent) in November. Total employment as measured by the household survey increased by 818,000 over the month, following a decline of 735,000 in the prior month. This over-the-month increase in employment partly reflected the return to work of furloughed federal government
employees. The employment-population ratio increased by 0.3 percentage point to 58.6 percent in November, reversing a decline of the same size in the prior month.

… Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 203,000 in November. Job growth averaged 195,000 per month over the prior 12 months. In November, job gains occurred in transportation and warehousing, health care, and manufacturing.

… The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised from +163,000 to +175,000, and the change for October was revised from +204,000 to +200,000. With these revisions, employment gains in September and October combined were 8,000 higher than previously reported.

Immediate Observations:

  • The Household Survey shows a seasonally adjusted employment increase of 818,000, following a 735,000 decrease in October. Does anyone believe that the job market is fluctuating this wildly? Or is the Census Bureau still fudging surveys?
  • That 818,000 increase broke down to 652,000 full-timers, 154,000 part-timers, and 12,000 leftovers in seasonalizing.
  • Ho-hum, another 16,400 temps were added (219,000 in the past 12 months). The BLS, which has been mentioning temps in its report every month for as long as I can remember, didn’t mention them this time.
  • Ho-hum, another 17,900 food and drinking establishment jobs were added (333,000 in the past 12 months).

Not seasonally adjusted results vs. benchmarks:

  • Overall — 421,000 actual vs. 450,000 needed.
  • Private sector — 309,000 actual vs. 375,000 needed.

Close overall (but maybe I wasn’t demanding enough), and not so strong in the private sector.

More updates later.

UPDATE, 12:15 P.M.: Pethokoukis nails it, as usual: “A ‘New Normal’ November jobs report: The long emergency for US workers continues”

Friday Off-Topic (Moderated) Open Thread (120613)

Filed under: Lucid Links — Tom @ 6:05 am

This open thread will stay at or near the top today. Rules are here. Possible comment fodder may follow. Other topics are also fair game.

____________________________________

(all items added at 8:10 a.m.)

RIP, Nelson Mandela.

Update, 8:30 p.m.: Dean Garrison at Freedom Outpost — “Media Fawns Though He (Mandela) was a Marxist Terrorist”

____________________________________

At Hot Air“How many people ‘enrolled’ in ObamaCare have paid their first month of premiums?” One insurer says it’s only 20%. Apparently just about everyone else is too intimidated to say anything.

If you don’t pay by December 31, “Your enrollment is void and you have to re-enroll on the website.”

____________________________________

At NewsBusters“Huffington Post Prints Woman’s Exaggerated Claims of Poverty, Refuses to Admit Error.” The truth: The woman involved is “is a private-school-educated Democratic activist who wildly exaggerated her circumstances. She owns a home as the result of her parents’ generosity, has worked in politics since 2004 and has called herself a private political consultant since 2010.”

____________________________________

Bridget Johnson at PJ Tatler“New Benghazi Testimony Confirms White House Had Time to Respond.”

Doug Ross, with more related evidence: “They let these people die and suffer grievous injury because of a simple political calculation. It’s sick.” Oh, and Valerie Jarrett was the one who was really in charge.

____________________________________

The IRS isn’t ready to monitor Obamacare enrollments for fraud. Let’s look at how the subsidies are to be distributed:

Lower-income taxpayers who purchase insurance on the exchanges can qualify for tax breaks that help them pay for insurance premiums — refundable tax credits that can be claimed at the end of each coverage year on a taxpayer’s return.

And they’re supposed to pay thousands in monthly premiums ahead of time?

Alternatively, Americans can estimate their incomes for the upcoming year and have an estimated tax credit paid in advance directly to their health insurance providers. Those are supposed to be reconciled the following year, depending on whether the person makes more or less than what he or she estimated.

What an incredibly cumbersome process.

Positivity: Israeli prime minister invites Pope Francis to Israel

Filed under: Positivity — Tom @ 6:00 am

From Vatican City:

Dec 3, 2013 / 02:06 am

During an audience with Pope Francis, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, invited the Roman Pontiff to visit Israel, though the date of the visit has yet to be determined.

The private audience, which lasted nearly half an hour, was held during Netanyahu’s two-day visit to Italy meant to improve relations between the two countries and to sign commercial agreements.

According to the Holy See press office, Pope Francis and Netanyahu’s conversation was focused on “the complex political and social situation in the Middle East, with particular reference to the reinstatement of negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians, expressing hope that a just and lasting solution respecting the rights of both parties may be reached as soon as possible.”

“Aside from indicating the Holy Father’s plans for a pilgrimage to the Holy Land, various questions were considered regarding the relations between the state authorities and the local Catholic communities, as well as between the State of Israel and the Holy See, in the hope that the agreement which has been in preparation for some time may be concluded forthwith.”

The agreement deals with a tax dispute between Israel and the Vatican, clarifying fiscal and property issues related to the Church which stem from policies established under the period of the U.K.’s administration of Palestine, which lasted from 1920 until Israel’s establishment in 1948.

The Church’s property in Israel enjoyed privileged legal and tax status under the British Mandate, and in 2003 the two states signed a treaty meant to resolve the issues, but it has yet to be ratified by the Knesset, Israel’s legislature. The treaty also established diplomatic relations between the two states.

In 2009, a bilateral working commission was established to resolve the economic issues, and will next meet in January, 2014. Zion Evrony, Israel’s ambassador to the Vatican, said Nov. 5 that he is optimistic about a quick agreement between the countries.

During the audience, Netanyahu confirmed his invitation to Pope Francis to visit the Holy Land next spring, and his wife Sarah added that “we look forward to it.”

According to Israeli media, the visit should take place May 25-26, 2014. The last papal visit to Israel was Benedict XVI’s in 2009; that was preceded by Bl. John Paul II in 2000, and Paul VI in 1964. …

Go here for the rest of the story.