January 6, 2014

I Wasn’t Even Looking For This (on Job Declines in Metro Cleveland) …

Filed under: Ohio Economy,Ohio Politics,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 10:03 am

… but it found me, when I was looking to see when the next Metro Area Employment and Unemployment Report covering November comes out (that will be tomorrow).

It was in the “Retrospective Summary of September 2013 Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment” at the end of October’s report (link will be overridden by November’s report tomorrow), done because the Bureau of Labor Statistics skipped issuing a September report because of the 17% government shutdown (figures are seasonally adjusted):

The largest over-the-year decrease in employment (from Sept. 2012 to Sept. 2013) occurred in Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, Ohio (-7,200), followed by Poughkeepsie, Newburgh-Middletown, N.Y. (-3,300), and Birmingham-Hoover, Ala. (-3,200). The largest over-the-year percentage decreases in employment occurred in Decatur, Ill. (-4.7 percent), Manhattan, Kan. (-3.1 percent), and Ocean City, N.J. (-3.0 percent).

To be fair to our northeastern Buckeye State buds, I looked up the stats as presented and revised for October and November (which seems to have been posted prematurely):

MetroClevelandPRjobs0102to1113

The “good” news is that September’s year-over-year shortfall is now “only” 5,400.

The bad news is that the October and November year-over-year job declines increased to amounts even greater than what was originally reported for September, i.e., to 7,500 and 7,800, respectively.

The really bad news is that Metro Cleveland is still almost 66,000 jobs shy of its pre-recession peak of 1.079 million in April 2006, and has recovered less than 30% of the 92,500 jobs lost from that month to March 2010 (26,800 jobs gained since March 2010 divided by 92,500 is 29%).

I’ll leave it to readers to mutter their own Team Kasich economic malaise comments.

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UPDATE: The seasonally adjusted 12-month decline per the Household Survey is just over 9,000 as of November. It was almost 12,000 back in April, narrowed from that point until September, and is headed the wrong way again.

The November 2013 v. 2012 not seasonally adjusted difference — more accurate because it’s supposed to reflect what’s actually there — was over 12,500.

UPDATE 2, Jan. 7: The Cleveland Plain Dealer pointed to the not seasonally adjusted Establishment Survey in reporting that November’s year-over-year Metro Cleveland employment drop was 8,100.

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