January 9, 2014

Initial Unemployment Claims (010914): 330K SA, Down From 345K in Previous Week

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 8:30 am

Predictions:

Seasonal adjustment factors:

  • Week ended Jan. 4, 2014 — 147.3
  • Week ended Jan. 5, 2013 — 149.6

Raw claims:

  • Week ended Dec. 28, 2013 — 451,649, an increase of more than 8,000 over the initially reported 443,513, which pushes last week’s seasonally adjusted figure to 345,000
  • Week ended Jan. 5, 2013 — 557,724

For Bloomberg’s prediction to come true, raw claims will have to come in at 494K or lower (494K divided by 147.3 is 335K, rounded). I’m tempted to say that this should happen, but the way the past few weeks have gone, I’m gun-shy to predict anything.

The report will be here at 8:30.

HERE IT IS (permanent link):

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending January 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 330,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 345,000. The 4-week moving average was 349,000, a decrease of 9,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 358,750.

… UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 486,033 in the week ending January 4, an increase of 34,384 from the previous week. There were 557,724 initial claims in the comparable week in 2013.

This week’s figure has the New Year’s holiday in it, and I would have expected layoffs to be lower than the same week last year, simply because retail hiring in advance of Christmas was lower.

I think the overall situation remains in the 340K-350K range. We’ll seen in next week’s report, which will cover the first full business week of the new year.

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1 Comment

  1. [...] Initial Unemployment Claims: a seasonally adjusted 330,000 yesterday; 345,000 a week ago. [...]

    Pingback by BizzyBlog — January 10, 2014 @ 8:47 am

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