January 28, 2014

Latest PJ Media Column (‘The Economic State of the Union Is Weak’) Is Up (Related: Dec.’s Disastrous Durable Goods)

Filed under: Business Moves,Economy,Health Care,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 9:04 am

It’s here.

It will go up here at BizzyBlog on Thursday morning (link won’t work until then) after the blackout expires.

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Related: This morning’s durable goods report was a disaster, and, as usual, was “unexpectedly” so —

Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders December 2013

New orders for manufactured durable goods in December decreased $10.3 billion or 4.3 percent to $229.3 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down two of the last three months, followed a 2.6 percent November increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 1.6 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 3.7 percent. Transportation equipment, also down two of the last three months, led the decrease, $7.7 billion or 9.5 percent to $73.1 billion. This was led by nondefense aircraft and parts, which decreased $3.8 billion.

Shipments

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in December, down following four consecutive monthly increases, decreased $4.5 billion or 1.9 percent to $232.8 billion. This followed a 1.3 percent November increase. Transportation equipment, also down following four consecutive monthly increases, led the decrease, $4.1 billion or 5.7 percent to $68.3 billion.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in December, up ten of the last eleven months, increased $3.9 billion or 0.4 percent to $1,061.5 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992, and followed a 0.9 percent November increase.

November’s 3.4 percent increase was revised down to 2.6 percent.

Bloomberg had a median prediction of +1.8 percent, and had the excuse generator at the ready: “The figures are difficult to square with other reports that showed factories were contributing to economic growth at the end of 2013 and into this year as companies geared up to meet more demand.”

They’re already blaming the weather — as if those who do these forecasts aren’t aware of it already. If they really didn’t consider the weather in their predictions, they’re incompetent. I’d prefer to believe that they got fooled by positive ISM survey numbers and a false sense of positive inertia.

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1 Comment

  1. [...] column went up at PJ Media and was teased here at BizzyBlog on [...]

    Pingback by BizzyBlog — January 30, 2014 @ 7:00 am

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