January 30, 2014

Initial Unemployment Claims (013014): 348K SA; Raw Claims Down Only 4% From Same Week Last Year

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 8:08 am

Note: Commentary here after the report’s release may be delayed because of the GDP report which is also to be released at 8:30.

Predictions: Business Insider has 330,000 seasonally adjusted claims.

Seasonal adjustment factors:

  • Week ended Jan. 25, 2014 — 101.8
  • Week ended Jan. 26, 2013 — 98.9

Raw claims:

  • Week ended Jan. 18, 2014 — 414,311 (up from initial 411,678 last week, which will increase last week’s original 328K to about 330K)
  • Week ended Jan. 26, 2013 — 369,480

For Business Insider’s prediction to hold, raw claims will have to be 336,000 or lower (336K divided by 1.018 is 330K, rounded).

That seems ambitious, but we’ll see here at 8:30.

HERE IT IS (permanent link):

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending January 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 348,000, an increase of 19,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 329,000. The 4-week moving average was 333,000, an increase of 750 from the previous week’s revised average of 332,250.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 354,604 in the week ending January 25, a decrease of 59,707 from the previous week. There were 369,480 initial claims in the comparable week in 2013.

I didn’t think the prediction would hold up, and it didn’t.

Looking ahead based on already published seasonal factors, raw claims are going to have to start coming in below 300,000 by mid- to late-March to keep seasonally adjusted claims at 330K or below. That doesn’t seem likely.

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