Seasonal adjustment factors:
- Week ended Feb. 1, 2014 — 107.2
- Week ended Feb. 2, 2013 — 107.6
- Week ended Jan. 25, 2014 — 357,656, up a few thousand from last week’s initial reading, changing the seasonally adjusted figure from 348K to 351K
- Week ended Feb. 2, 2013 — 388,442
For the prediction to come true, raw claims will need to be 359,000 or less (359K divided by 1.072 is 335K, rounded). That would be about 7.5% lower than last year. That should be doable. Raw claims coming in above 359K would not be a favorable omen heading into tomorrow.
The report will be here at 8:30.
HERE IT IS:
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA
In the week ending February 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 331,000, a decrease of 20,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 351,000. The 4-week moving average was 334,000, an increase of 250 from the previous week’s revised average of 333,750.
… UNADJUSTED DATA
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 355,224 in the week ending February 1, a decrease of 2,432 from the previous week. There were 388,442 initial claims in the comparable week in 2013.
After next week’s revision, the seasonally adjusted number will likely be very close to the prediction.
There’s not a lot to say here, except that stabilization in the 330s, if that’s what is really happening, really isn’t that impressive as a harbinger of the kind of higher job growth Mark Zandi of Moody’s said he expects this year (225K per month average for the whole year) — and even that average job-growth number isn’t acceptable in the circumstances.