February 13, 2014

Initial Unemployment Claims (021314): 339K SA; NSA Claims Only 1% Below Same Week Last Year

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 6:57 am

Prediction:

Bloomberg predicts 330,000 seasonally adjusted claims

Seasonal adjustment factors:

  • Week ended Feb. 8, 2014 — 105.8
  • Week ended Feb. 9, 2013 — 104.0

Raw claims:

  • Week ended Feb. 1, 2014 — 355,224 (revised to 355,187, according to DOL’s history table)
  • Week ended Feb. 9, 2013 — 361,417

For Bloomberg’s prediction to hold, raw claims will need to be at or below 349,000 (349K divided by 1.058 is 330K, rounded).

That should be eminently doable.

Seasonally adjusted claims really need to come in under 320K in the circumstances (that means raw claims would be about 6% or so lower than the same week last year).

The report will be here at 8:30.

HERE IT IS (permanent link) Don’t buy the spin, this is very weak in the circumstances —

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending February 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 339,000, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week’s unrevised figure of 331,000. The 4-week moving average was 336,750, an increase of 3,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 333,250.
… UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 358,914 in the week ending February 8, an increase of 3,727 from the previous week. There were 361,417 initial claims in the comparable week in 2013.

So raw claims only came down by about 1 percent from the same week last year. Does anyone remember last year being great? Didn’t think so.

Although last week wasn’t revised, that’s a rarity, happening at most about 5% of the time. If this week gets revised by only 3,503 claims, which is reasonably likely based on history, it will have been as bad as next year.

I should add that if last year’s seasonal adjustment factor had been used on this year’s raw claims, the seasonally adjusted result would have been 345,000), (358,914 divided by 1.040, rounded), or 6K higher than today’s official result.

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3 Comments

  1. Whoops – 339K, up from an unrevised 331K.

    Speaking of misses, retail sales are down 0.4%, with an unchanged ex-auto number. Revisions are on the negative side.

    Comment by steveegg — February 13, 2014 @ 8:33 am

  2. In retail sales, is Obamacare impact finally being felt?

    I think the delay in its impact relates to extensions of premium due dates. The impact would have been greater but for the fact that about half of “enrollees” didn’t pay their premiums.

    Comment by Tom — February 13, 2014 @ 8:41 am

  3. [...] his 9:44 a.m. coverage of the government’s jobless claims report (seasonally adjusted claims rose to 339,000 from 331,000 the previous week): Extremely cold weather discouraged shoppers in January and caused [...]

    Pingback by BizzyBlog — February 13, 2014 @ 10:16 am

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