February 20, 2014

Initial Unemployment Claims (022014): 336K SA; NSA Claims 8% Below Same Week Last Year

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 7:20 am

Prediction (from late last night): At Bloomberg — “data today may show U.S. jobless claims fell.” Last week’s seasonally adjusted result was 339,000 initial claims.

Seasonal adjustment factors:

  • Week ended Feb. 15, 2014 — 96.2
  • Week ended Feb. 16, 2013 — 95.8

Raw claims:

  • Week ended Feb. 8, 2014 — 358,159
  • Week ended Feb. 16, 2013 — 351,026

If we take Bloomberg to be predicting 335,000 seasonally adjusted claims, then achieving that level or lower will require raw claims to be 322,000 or fewer (322K divided by .962 is 335K; corrected from original post earlier this morning).

That should easily be achievable, but I have my doubts.

We’ll see here at 8:30 a.m.

HERE IT IS (permanent link):


In the week ending February 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 336,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week’s unrevised figure of 339,000. The 4-week moving average was 338,500, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 336,750.


The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 323,151 in the week ending February 15, a decrease of 35,008 from the previous week. There were 351,026 initial claims in the comparable week in 2013.

That’s in line with expectations.

I find it interesting that DOL has been able to avoid significant revisions for a while now that there isn’t as much attention being paid to claims compared to 2-3 years ago, when it was a constant game of upward revisions to previous data. Did they all of a sudden get better at this, or were they playing “Let’s hide as much of the bad news as we can” back in 2011 and 2012?

Thursday Off-Topic (Moderated) Open Thread (022014)

Filed under: Lucid Links — Tom @ 6:05 am

This open thread will stay at or near the top today. Rules are here. Possible comment fodder may follow. Other topics are also fair game.

Positivity: Surprise princess parade held for girl, 5, with terminal cancer

Filed under: Positivity — Tom @ 6:00 am

From Dickinson, Texas (HT Twitchy, which has a tremendous collection of photos from the event):

The story:

Updated at 08:58 PM, Feb. 19

It’s a heartwarming story out of a heartbreaking one. A five-year-old girl in Dickinson is fighting a rare form of cancer and right now, there’s no cure for it. But on Wednesday, she received a gift from community members who hoped to take her mind off of it.

Claire Lankford loves princesses, and thanks to dozens of big-hearted people in and around her community, she got a surprise a parade made for one.

Cinderella, Snow White, Sleeping Beauty and Belle were all in attendance as Claire was given a royal ride around the Bay Colony neighborhood in a horse-drawn carriage.

The five-year-old has been fighting cancer for about a year and half now.

“It’s terminal. She has just a couple months. She has five tumors in her lungs and lymph nodes,” family friend Jaime Harbuck said.

It’s been a long road for the little one, who has managed to keep a smile on her face. Harbuck wanted to do something special for Claire so she decided to make her a princess for a day. And when the word got out, the entire community in and around Dickinson pitched in.

“It has just grown into something that honestly, it’s something that I dreamed that it would be, special for her,” Harbuck said. “It’s just heartwarming to know that our community can come together for a little girl.” …

Go here for the rest of the story.

National Press Ignores Most Connecticut Gun Owners Defying State’s Registration Demand

The national press devoted a great deal of attention to gun registration in Connecticut at the end of 2013. The Associated Press’s Susan Haigh had a December 29 story which was picked up by, among many others, PBS, CBS’s New York City affiliate, the Huffington Post, and the UK Guardian. Time.com was also on the story.

That attention makes the press’s virtual inattention outside of the Nutmeg State itself to what has since been learned all the more difficult to justify. It turns out that there are now three types of so-called “assault weapon” owners in Connecticut: those who registered by the deadline, those whose registrations came in after the deadline, and those who defied the state’s registration demand. As J.D. Tuccille at Reason.com reported on Tuesday, the second group is on track to having their guns confiscated, and the number of people in the third group dwarfs those in the first two — a situation which has greatly upset the political establishment, particularly the editorial board at the state’s largest newspaper (HT Instapundit; bolds are mine):