Seasonal adjustment factors:
- Week ended Feb. 15, 2014 — 96.2
- Week ended Feb. 16, 2013 — 95.8
- Week ended Feb. 8, 2014 — 358,159
- Week ended Feb. 16, 2013 — 351,026
If we take Bloomberg to be predicting 335,000 seasonally adjusted claims, then achieving that level or lower will require raw claims to be 322,000 or fewer (322K divided by .962 is 335K; corrected from original post earlier this morning).
That should easily be achievable, but I have my doubts.
We’ll see here at 8:30 a.m.
HERE IT IS (permanent link):
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA
In the week ending February 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 336,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week’s unrevised figure of 339,000. The 4-week moving average was 338,500, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 336,750.
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 323,151 in the week ending February 15, a decrease of 35,008 from the previous week. There were 351,026 initial claims in the comparable week in 2013.
That’s in line with expectations.
I find it interesting that DOL has been able to avoid significant revisions for a while now that there isn’t as much attention being paid to claims compared to 2-3 years ago, when it was a constant game of upward revisions to previous data. Did they all of a sudden get better at this, or were they playing “Let’s hide as much of the bad news as we can” back in 2011 and 2012?