February 20, 2014

Initial Unemployment Claims (022014): 336K SA; NSA Claims 8% Below Same Week Last Year

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 7:20 am

Prediction (from late last night): At Bloomberg — “data today may show U.S. jobless claims fell.” Last week’s seasonally adjusted result was 339,000 initial claims.

Seasonal adjustment factors:

  • Week ended Feb. 15, 2014 — 96.2
  • Week ended Feb. 16, 2013 — 95.8

Raw claims:

  • Week ended Feb. 8, 2014 — 358,159
  • Week ended Feb. 16, 2013 — 351,026

If we take Bloomberg to be predicting 335,000 seasonally adjusted claims, then achieving that level or lower will require raw claims to be 322,000 or fewer (322K divided by .962 is 335K; corrected from original post earlier this morning).

That should easily be achievable, but I have my doubts.

We’ll see here at 8:30 a.m.

HERE IT IS (permanent link):

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending February 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 336,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week’s unrevised figure of 339,000. The 4-week moving average was 338,500, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 336,750.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 323,151 in the week ending February 15, a decrease of 35,008 from the previous week. There were 351,026 initial claims in the comparable week in 2013.

That’s in line with expectations.

I find it interesting that DOL has been able to avoid significant revisions for a while now that there isn’t as much attention being paid to claims compared to 2-3 years ago, when it was a constant game of upward revisions to previous data. Did they all of a sudden get better at this, or were they playing “Let’s hide as much of the bad news as we can” back in 2011 and 2012?

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2 Comments

  1. I’ll go with “hide the increase” for $500, Tom.

    Speaking of jobs numbers, it turns out that an envelope containing evidence of falsification of the Household Survey was sent to then-BLS head Keith Hall in August 2011, who claims he never received it. Also, the US Attorney in Philadelphia, last seen filing charges against union types for 40 years of violent intimidation, is looking into the matter.

    Comment by steveegg — February 20, 2014 @ 9:00 am

  2. Hope that US atty. is really security conscious.

    Comment by Tom — February 21, 2014 @ 4:51 am

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