Predictions: — Bloomberg — “Data due today may show jobless claims fell last week by 1,000.” That would mean to 335,000 seasonally adjusted claims from last week’s 336,000 (before revisions which have already been posted and took the number down to 334,000).
Seasonal Adjustment Factors:
- Week ended Feb. 22, 2014 — 89.2 (yep, the same as last year)
- Week ended Feb. 23, 2013 — 89.2
- Week ended Feb. 15, 2014 — 321,414 (a reduction from last week’s 323,151)
- Week ended Feb. 23, 2013 — 310,389
For Bloomberg’s 335K prediction to come true, raw claims will have to be 299K or below (299K divided by .892 is 335K, rounded). That seems aggressive but doable.
We’ll see here at 8:30.
HERE IT IS (permanent link): Looks like it wasn’t doable —
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA
In the week ending February 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 348,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 334,000. The 4-week moving average was 338,250, unchanged from the previous week’s revised average.
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 310,816 in the week ending February 22, a decrease of 10,598 from the previous week. There were 310,389 initial claims in the comparable week in 2013.
So there’s essentially no change in raw claims or seasonally adjusted claims from a year ago. Does anyone remember how great the first quarter of last year was? Neither do I.