- Business Insider’s email — 52.0%, up from January’s 51.3%, which was a big drop from December’s recalibrated 56.5%.
- Bloomberg also has 52.0%.
I’m not going to hazard a prediction on this one, as survey respondents seem to be gauging their sentiment about manufacturing’s direction in the coming months partially on the weather, which in my view isn’t the point of the exercise.
The report will be here at 10:00 a.m.
HERE IT IS (permanent link):
Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in February for the ninth consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 57th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.
… “The February PMI® registered 53.2 percent, an increase of 1.9 percentage points from January’s reading of 51.3 percent indicating expansion in manufacturing for the ninth consecutive month. The New Orders Index registered 54.5 percent, an increase of 3.3 percentage points from January’s reading of 51.2 percent. The Production Index registered 48.2 percent, a decrease of 6.6 percentage points compared to January’s reading of 54.8 percent. Inventories of raw materials increased by 8.5 percentage points to 52.5 percent. As in January, several comments from the panel mention adverse weather conditions as a factor impacting their businesses in February. Other comments reflect optimism in terms of demand and growth in the near term.”
Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 14 are reporting growth in February …
The three components tied to GDP were mixed: As seen above, Production went into contraction and New Orders went into further expansion. The Backlog of Orders went from congration (48.0) into expansion (52.0).
In the circumstances, this report is pretty decent. The open question is the degree to which the contraction in production is truly weather-related vs. an adjustment to order levels which haven’t been expanding as much as they were several months ago.