March 6, 2014

Initial Unemployment Claims (030614): 323K SA; Raw Claims Down 5% From Same Week Last Year

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 7:02 am

PredictionBloomberg — 336,000 seasonally adjusted claims, down from 348,000 (before revision to 349,000 now visible at DOL’s claims history accessible here) last week. Update: Business Insider has a prediction of 338,000.

Seasonal Adjustment Factors:

  • Week Ended March 1, 2014 — 98.2
  • Week Ended March 2, 2013 — 98.7

Raw Claims (before seasonal adjustment):

  • Week Ended Feb. 22, 2014 — 311,481 (after revision to last week already posted)
  • Week Ended March 2, 2013 — 335,680

To meet Bloomberg’s prediction, raw claims will need to be 330,000 or lower (330K divided by 98.2 is 336K, rounded).

I see no reason why raw claims should come any higher than last week, and I think we should consider it a disappointment if they are. So I think that seasonally adjusted claims had better come in a 318,000 or below, or we have a problem. The business press obviously won’t see it that way.

The release will be here at 8:30 a.m.

HERE IT IS (permanent link):

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending March 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 323,000, a decrease of 26,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 349,000. The 4-week moving average was 336,500, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 338,500.

… UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 317,183 in the week ending March 1, an increase of 5,702 from the previous week. There were 335,680 initial claims in the comparable week in 2013.

As noted, there’s no good reason why raw claims should have increased at all from last week. But they did, though at least it was relatively nominal.

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1 Comment

  1. [...] Initial unemployment claims — 323,000 seasonally adjusted claims in most recent week. The underlying trend is in the 330K – 340K range. Weekly raw (not seasonally adjusted) claims are on the rise. [...]

    Pingback by BizzyBlog — March 7, 2014 @ 7:19 am

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