March 13, 2014

Initial Unemployment Claims (031314): 315,000 SA; NSA Claims 5% Below Same Week Last Year

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 7:47 am

Predictions:

Seasonal Adjustment Factors:

  • Week ended March 8, 2014 — 96.0
  • Week ended March 9, 2013 — 95.1

Raw Claims:

  • Week ended March 1, 2014 — 317,832 (revised slightly up from last week, making the seasonally adjusted figure 324,000 instead of 323,000)
  • Week ended March 9, 2013 — 317,526

For Bloomberg’s prediction to hold, raw claims will have to be 317K or lower (317K divided by 96.0 is 330K, rounded).

Let’s hope it does. It will be a disappointment if it doesn’t, because it will mean that weekly raw claims are rising.

We’ll find out here at 8:30.

HERE IT IS (permanent link):

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending March 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 315,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 324,000. The 4-week moving average was 330,500, a decrease of 6,250 from the previous week’s revised average of 336,750.

… UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 302,218 in the week ending March 8, a decrease of 15,614 from the previous week. There were 317,526 initial claims in the comparable week in 2013.

This is a pretty good result.

That said, it’s useful to remind readers that almost five years after the recession officially ended, “covered employment” — those who would be eligible for benefits if laid off or let go involuntarily — is still only 130.938 million, almost 3 million below the 133.902 million peak seen at the end of 2008.

In most if not all other recoveries, that covered employment number came back to its previous peak years sooner. We’re still probably 18-24 months away from getting there this time around, which means it will have taken about seven years to return to the previous peak — before considering aduly populations gains.

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