Seasonal Adjustment Factors:
- Week ended March 15, 2014 — 89.2
- Week ended March 16, 2013 — 88.2
- Week ended March 8, 2014 — 302,311 (revised, but barely, with no change in the seasonally adjusted 315,000 from last week.
- Week ended March 16, 2013 — 300,951
For the lower of the two predictions above to come true, raw claims will have to be 287,000 or lower (287K divided by 89.2 is 322K, rounded). That level of raw claims would be 4% to 5% below last week’s and last year’s raw claims, which seems doable. Raw claims above 300K would be cause for some concern.
The report will be here at 8:30.
HERE IT IS (permanent link):
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA
In the week ending March 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 320,000, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week’s unrevised figure of 315,000. The 4-week moving average was 327,000, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 330,500.
… UNADJUSTED DATA
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 285,316 in the week ending March 15, a decrease of 16,995 from the previous week. There were 300,951 initial claims in the comparable week in 2013.
This is in line with predictions.