March 27, 2014

Initial Unemployment Claims (032714): 311K SA; NSA Claims Down 13% From Same Week Last Year

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 8:05 am

Note: I’ll address today’s initial claims release after my initial review of today’s fourth quarter GDP number.

_________________________________

Predictions:

Seasonal Adjustment Factors:

  • Week ended March 22, 2014 — 87.8
  • Week ended March 23, 2013 — 88.5

Raw Claims:

  • Week ended March 15, 2014 (revised) — 285,970, which has moved last week’s seasonally adjusted figure to 321,000.
  • Week ended March 23, 2013 — 315,620

For today’s prediction of 323K to come true, raw claims will need to be 284K or lower (284K divided by .878 is 323K, rounded). Seems like that’s about where they will come in, but we’ll see here at 8:30.

HERE IT IS (permanent link):

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending March 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 311,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 321,000. The 4-week moving average was 317,750, a decrease of 9,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 327,250.

… UNADJUSTED DATA

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