Note: I’ll address today’s initial claims release after my initial review of today’s fourth quarter GDP number.
Seasonal Adjustment Factors:
- Week ended March 22, 2014 — 87.8
- Week ended March 23, 2013 — 88.5
- Week ended March 15, 2014 (revised) — 285,970, which has moved last week’s seasonally adjusted figure to 321,000.
- Week ended March 23, 2013 — 315,620
For today’s prediction of 323K to come true, raw claims will need to be 284K or lower (284K divided by .878 is 323K, rounded). Seems like that’s about where they will come in, but we’ll see here at 8:30.
HERE IT IS (permanent link):
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA
In the week ending March 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 311,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 321,000. The 4-week moving average was 317,750, a decrease of 9,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 327,250.
… UNADJUSTED DATA
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 273,411 in the week ending March 22, a decrease of 12,559 from the previous week. There were 315,620 initial claims in the comparable week in 2013.
That’s a strong performance.
I suppose a naysaying argument might be that employers are hanging on to even their marginal people because the potential replacement pool of those who are still looking for work consists largely of the long-term unemployed who are significant hiring risks. I’ll hold back on using that as an explanation for now.