April 30, 2014

April National ADP Jobs Report and Conference Call (043014): 220K Private-Sector Jobs Added (See Conference Call Notes)

Filed under: Business Moves,Economy — Tom @ 8:07 am

Predictions:

The report will be here at 8:15 a.m. I will live-blog and perhaps participate in the 8:30 a.m. conference call.

HERE IT IS: “U.S. Economy Added 220,000 Private-Sector Jobs in April, According to ADP National Employment Report.”

From the April cover page:

  • Small businesses (1-49 employees) +82,000
  • Medium businesses (50-499 employees) +81,000
  • Large businesses (500 or more employees) +57,000

From the press release:

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “The job market is gaining strength. After a tough winter employers are expanding payrolls across nearly all industries and company sizes. The recent pickup in job growth at mid-sized companies may signal better business confidence. Job market prospects are steadily improving.”

CONFERENCE CALL NOTES:

Mark Zandi: Underlying job growth is 200-225K per month. Nearly every sector added jobs, except mfg., which is due to productivity improvements.

Unemp will drop but there is still slack in the economy. About 2-1/2 points worth, taking 2.5-3 years to absorb.

Some labor shortages already in different industries. Middle of country is tight (North Dakota down to Texas). Energy, tech – highly skilled in big demand.

Small bizzes are adding consistently to payrolls. Early in recovery, it largely went to big companies. Midsize (500-1000) are also adding strongly. Basically gains are across all sectors and sizes.

Job market is on firmer ground and picking up. Quite encouraging.

Q (from me) re GDP, weather -1 point, unemp ins expiration -0.5 pts., and inventories. Wouldn’t be surprised if revised higher. Inv. declines might augur well for next quarters.

Q (from me re low-wages) “early in recovery” (!) not unusual, mix should improve going forward. Pay scales will head up.

Q (Rugaber, AP, re wage growth data and avg earnings) Wage growth is still very modest, and it feels like it’s picking up.

Q (Rugaber, AP, on GDP) Zandi expects housing to add to growth during the rest of the year and to add significantly during the next three years. Will be an undersupplied market with shortages in 2015 and 2016. But the big factor for growth will be business investment (rattled off five reasons, including “fading” of regulatory impacts, i.e., Dodd-Frank). Tax increases are over. Job market will provide more income. Consumers will also do their part and add to growth.

Q (Tim Mullaney, MarketWatch, re BLS v ADP) average miss is 40K in either direction which nets out to zero over time. Improved from 60K when Moody’s took over 18 months ago. Biggest misses were this winter. ADP is based on active employees and BLS is based on PAID employees (upward bias with ADP). Predicts 220K for BLS report on Friday, with “risk” to the upside. We’re due for an upside BLS surprise. (!)

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1 Comment

  1. [...] ADP Private-sector jobs for April — 220,000 jobs added. [...]

    Pingback by BizzyBlog — May 2, 2014 @ 8:15 am

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