May 5, 2014

April ISM Non-Manufacturing: 55.2%, Up from 53.1%, Beating Expectations of 54.0%

Filed under: Economy — Tom @ 9:57 am

Predictions:

The report will be here at 10 a.m.

10:05 a.m.: Still waiting …

10:07 a.m.: HERE IT IS (permanent link) —

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in April for the 51st consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

“The NMI® registered 55.2 percent in April, 2.1 percentage points higher than March’s reading of 53.1 percent. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased substantially to 60.9 percent, which is 7.5 percentage points higher than the March reading of 53.4 percent, reflecting growth for the 57th consecutive month at a much faster rate. The New Orders Index registered 58.2 percent, 4.8 percentage points higher than the reading of 53.4 percent registered in March. The Employment Index decreased 2.3 percentage points to 51.3 percent from the March reading of 53.6 percent and indicates growth for the second consecutive month, but at a slower rate. The Prices Index increased 2.5 percentage points from the March reading of 58.3 percent to 60.8 percent, indicating prices increased at a faster rate in April when compared to March. According to the NMI®, 14 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in April. The majority of survey respondents’ comments indicate that both business conditions and the economy are improving.”

14 of 18 industries showed expansion.

Two of three future GDP drivers shot up: New Orders from 53.4% to 58.3%, and Business Activity from 53.4% to 60.9%.

But Backlog of Orders went into contraction, from 51.5% to 49.0%.

This report looks like it has a lot of post-winter exuberance; remember, this is a sentiment survey not necessarily based on hard numbers.

The question of whether it will last is open, but we’ll take it.

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1 Comment

  1. Again Tom, I have to question these so called indices. For the all the expansion they been trumpeting over the past year, then why has the GDP growth stalled? As anecdotal evidence I submit the following:

    Great Lakes ice cover slow to melt

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/04/30/great-lakes-ice-cover-slow-to-melt/8540695/

    The money quote: One iron ore cargo ship that left port in western Lake Superior on March 23 did not deliver its first cargo on southern Lake Michigan until April 23, Nekvasil said.

    “In 30 days they normally would have delivered four cargoes,” he said.

    Iron ore shipments in March were down 43% over last year. The large U.S. Steel plant in Gary, Ind., scaled back production early last month due to its depleted supplies of iron ore.

    So why didn’t the so called index reflect this reality over the past several months?

    Now I understand the conundrum liberals are faced with here so they do the usual talking points with thin supporting rhetoric to rush past the inconvenient truth.

    The weather may indeed be one significant damp blanket on the economy, however, given there has been NO Global Warming for the past 17 years and the Great Lakes this winter had a historic freeze over and historic late ice break up the debate is now certainly over as to there being AGW, there is none. Global temperatures have remained flat to lowering while CO2 levels have steadily risen over the same 17 year period. AGW Theory has been disproven. So once again, President Obama’s pet initiative failed for a lack of substance just like so many others.

    That being said, the economy has been teetering on the edge since 2009 with accounting gimmicks not accurately reflecting inflation. There has been no recovery in full time job numbers to pre-recession levels and less people are working than in past decades ever have worked. That is NOT a recovery as defined by the NBER back in 2007. Like everything else about this phony recovery, moving the goal posts to hide Stagflation is just a pitiful means to not admit that Liberal/Socialist Economics is a failure.

    There, I have said it, STAGFLATION, now liberals deal with it.

    Comment by dscott — May 5, 2014 @ 3:27 pm

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