May 8, 2014

Initial Unemployment Claims (050814): 319K SA; Raw Claims 4.9% Below Same Week Last Year

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 8:27 am

Predictions:

Seasonal Adjustment Factors:

  • Week ended May 3, 2014 — 90.0
  • Week ended May 4, 2013 — 90.9

Raw Claims:

  • Week ended April 26, 2014 — 317,184 (before revision)
  • Week ended May 4, 2013 — 301,602

To meet or beat the predictions above, raw claims will need to come in at 292.9K or lower (292.9K divided by 90.0 is 325K).

That seems ambitious. I think the number will come in slightly higher.

We’ll see when the report comes out here (PDF) at 8:30.

HERE IT IS (permanent link):

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending May 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 319,000, a decrease of 26,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 344,000 to 345,000. The 4-week moving average was 324,750, an increase of 4,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 320,000 to 320,250.

… UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 286,916 in the week ending May 3, a decrease of 31,211 (or -9.8 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected a decrease of 7,591 (or -2.4 percent) from the previous week. There were 301,602 initial claims in the comparable week in 2013.

Last week was revised up by 1K.

This report was relatively strong.

In a movement which happened in early April which I’m just noticing, “covered employment,” or the number of workers eligible for unemployment benefits if they are let go, increased from 130.94. million to 131.53 million. That’s good, but it’s still almost 2.4 million shy of the December 2008 high of 133.90 million.

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2 Comments

  1. I’ve been of the opinion that Easter week should be ignored. This is further proof of that.

    I wish I could say I’m seeing evidence that the slightly-improved jobless claims translates into more people working, but it still appears that it is more a case of companies simply running out of people to fire. Too bad we won’t have the 2Q QCEW to break the “tie” until December.

    If memory serves, the DOL revises the “covered employment” estimate once a quarter. It is yet another reminder that we haven’t quite recovered from the Great Recession on the jobs front.

    Comment by steveegg — May 8, 2014 @ 9:16 am

  2. [...] claims: Week ended May 3, 2014 — 286,916 (before likely revision) Week ended May 11, 2013 — [...]

    Pingback by BizzyBlog — May 15, 2014 @ 7:11 am

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