June 5, 2014

Initial Unemployment Claims (060514)

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 8:29 am

Prediction: Business Insider — 310,000 seasonally adjusted claims, up from 300K (before possible revision) last week.

Seasonal adjustment factors:

  • Week ended May 31, 2014 — 84.4
  • Week ended June 1, 2013 — 84.9

Raw claims:

  • Week ended May 24, 2014 — 271,805 (before possible revision)
  • Week ended June 1, 2013 — 294,608

For the result to come in at 310K or below, raw claims will need to be 261K or lower (261K divided by .844 is 310K, rounded).

I think we’re going to see 320K or so as the result, but we’ll see here at 8:30 a.m.

HERE IT IS:

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending May 31, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 312,000, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 4,000 from 300,000 to 304,000. The 4-week moving average was 310,250, a decrease of 2,250 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since June 2, 2007 when it was 307,500. The previous week’s average was revised up by 1,000 from 311,500 to 312,500.

… UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 262,931 in the week ending May 31, a decrease of 12,481 (or -4.5 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected a decrease of 19,130 (or -6.9 percent) from the previous week. There were 294,608 initial claims in the comparable week in 2013.

That’s a strong result, given how low raw claims needed to be to generate it, even after considering that week included Memorial Day.

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1 Comment

  1. [...] – Bloomberg — 310,000 seasonally adjusted claims, down from last week’s 312,000 (before revision) – Business Insider — [...]

    Pingback by BizzyBlog — June 12, 2014 @ 8:12 am

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