June 5, 2014

Latest PJ Media Column (‘The Obama ‘Recovery’: As Bad as (or Worse than) the Great Depression?’) Is Up

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 2:43 pm

It’s here.

It will go up here at BizzyBlog on Saturday morning (link won’t work until then) after the blackout expires.

Long-suffering “must have charts” advocates will be pleased.

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5 Comments

  1. Charts most pleasing.

    Curiously, was the jobs recovery during these time periods equally proportional to the gross dollar value increase of the GDP?

    Questions:

    What was the total number of employed in each year of the Depression?

    Having that number (jobs) and dividing into the GDP adjusted for inflation might give a basis of comparison apart from the participation rate. What I am hinting at is that any dollar only rating of the economy may not give the true health of the economy since it seems that this so called recovery is mostly due to under estimating inflation. This so called recovery is a contrived paper increase through accounting not an actual demonstrable increase.

    Comment by dscott — June 6, 2014 @ 11:03 am

  2. I think per capita real GDP pretty much gets you to where you want to be to answer your concern, except that interpolating within 1929, 1933 and 1937 for comparability would be tough.

    (chained 2009 dollars)
    1929 – 8,661 (maybe it would have been 8,800 annualized for the first 7 mos of 1929)
    1930 – 7,840
    1931 – 7,282
    1932 – 6,303
    1933 – 6,187 (maybe the trough would have been 6,000 annualized for the first 3 mos of 1933)
    1934 – 6,811
    1935 – 7,366
    1936 – 8,266
    1937 – 8,635 (maybe it would have been 8,800 annualized just before the 1937-1938 recession began)
    1938 – 8,284
    1939 – 8,873 (finally left the pre-Depression peak behind)
    1940 – 9,574

    2007 – 49,311 (Peak 4Q07 – 49,520)
    2008 – 48,708
    2009 – 46,927 (Trough 2Q09 – 46,786)
    2010 – 47,710
    2011 – 48,240
    2012 – 49,231 (3Q12 – 49,388; 4Q12 – 49,313)
    2013 – 49,804 (2Q13 – 49,597, finally recovering; peak 50,236 in 4Q13, barely 1% above 4Q07)
    1Q14 – 50,024

    This obviously doesn’t correct for possible underestimates in the GDP deflator.

    I found this on the unemployment rate and wages during the 1930s. It seems with the differences in the two unemployment rate guesstimates that they didn’t have a good handle on the total number employed.

    Comment by Tom — June 6, 2014 @ 4:09 pm

  3. [...] column went up at PJ Media and was teased here at BizzyBlog on [...]

    Pingback by BizzyBlog — June 7, 2014 @ 10:23 am

  4. #2, when you calculated the per capita GDP from 2007 to 2013, were you using the same population figure for each year? With Obama refusing to enforce the immigration laws the population grew and especially for those on the low economic scale. I would expect the per capita rate to drop since their economic output is so low in proportion to the American citizen that each additional illegal is disproportionately off setting any citizen who does get a job. Remitances do hurt the economy.

    We had a 15 million increase from 2007 (301 mil) to 2013 (316 mil). That’s a significant impact on GDP per capita calculations.

    15/301 = 4.98% This figure alone would negate any real GDP increase over the time period.

    Whereas 1929 (122 mil) to 1939 (131 mil) showed a 9 million increase. 9/122 = 7.4% increase.

    Pop. est. – http://www.multpl.com/united-states-population/table

    Per capita – http://www.multpl.com/us-gdp-per-capita

    My difficulty here is the reliability of those giving out information for the partisan narrative. The two biggest liars are the politician and statistics, when both get together who knows what the truth is?

    It would be every easy to fudge the GDP and per capita GDP especially with the Fed pumping $1 trillion a year with wired ones and zeros to the banks over the last 5 years.

    Comment by dscott — June 9, 2014 @ 8:06 am

  5. dscott, the per-capitas figures came from the BEA, and they do change the population numbers each quarter.

    I backed into a couple of the population estimates they used (2009 real GDP):
    - 4Q07 — $14.9961 trillion divided by $48,509 = 309.14 million
    - 1Q14 — $15.9029 trillion divided by $50,034 = 317.84 million

    Official pop as of this moment: 318.204 million.

    Comment by Tom — June 9, 2014 @ 2:18 pm

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