June 12, 2014

Initial Unemployment Claims (061214): 317K SA; Raw Claims Up 18% Over Previous Week

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 8:12 am

Predictions:

Seasonal Adjustment Factors:

  • Week ended June 7, 2014 — 98.6
  • Week ended June 8, 2013 — 98.5

Raw Claims:

  • Week ended May 31, 2014 — 262,931 (before possible revision)
  • Week ended June 8, 2013 — 336,970

For the 310,000 seasonally adjusted prediction to come true, raw claims will need to be 306,000 or lower (306K divided by .986 is 310K, rounded). That would be significantly higher than last week’s pre-revised figure.

It seems to me that raw claims should come in a lot lower than that, and that we’ll see a seasonally adjusted figure below 300,000.

We’ll see what come out of the government’s stat machine here at 8:30.

HERE IT IS (permanent link): I consider this quite a disappointment (note: had to change many numbers here based on misreading previous weeks’ data; apologies for that; need to get more coffee before doing this in the future) —

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending June 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 317,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 312,000 to 313,000. The 4-week moving average was 315,250, an increase of 4,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 310,250 to 310,500.

… UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 312,129 in the week ending June 7, an increase of 47,996 (or 18.2 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected an increase of 44,439 (or 16.8 percent) from the previous week. There were 332,964 initial claims in the comparable week in 2013.

This week’s 18% in raw claims is disappointing, no matter what the “seasonal factors” (which, by the way are inanimate objects with no analytical capabilities or feelings of their own) “expected.”

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1 Comment

  1. [...] Preiction: Bloomberg predicts 313,000 seasonally adjusted claims, down from 317,000 last week. [...]

    Pingback by BizzyBlog — June 19, 2014 @ 8:10 am

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