June 19, 2014

Initial Unemployment Claims (061914): 312K SA; Raw Claims 11% Lower Than Same Week Last Year

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 8:10 am

Preiction: Bloomberg predicts 313,000 seasonally adjusted claims, down from 317,000 last week (before possible revision today).

Seasonal Adjustment Factors:
- Week ended June 14, 2014 — 96.1
- Week ended June 15, 2013 — 95.8

Raw Claims:
- Week ended June 7, 2014 (before possible revision) — 312,129 (Update: Revised to 313,371, increasing seasonally adjusted value to 318,000))
- Week ended June 15, 2013 — 336,970

To meet or beat the 313K seasonally adjusted prediction, raw claims will need to be 301,000 or lower (301K divided by .961 is 313K rounded). That would be a 4 percent drop from last week, when raw claims jumped by a whopping 18 percent from the previous week. In the same week last year, raw claims increased by about 1 percent from the previous week. In the same week in 2012, they dropped by 3 percent.

It seems like we should see a number in line with predictions.

We’ll find out here at 8:30.

8:33 a.m.: DOL has 312K at its home page; no report yet.

HERE IT IS (permanent link [not working yet, but should work by 9:00 a.m.]):

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending June 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 312,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 317,000 to 318,000. The 4-week moving average was 311,750, a decrease of 3,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 315,250 to 315,500.

… UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 300,193 in the week ending June 14, a decrease of 13,178 (or -4.2 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected a decrease of 7,946 (or -2.5 percent) from the previous week. There were 336,970 initial claims in the comparable week in 2013.

Not a lot of drama here, as the report was in line with expectations.

UPDATE: Interesting comment in Business Insider’s tardy email:

“Initial jobless claims continue to linger below 320k,” said Nomura economists. “This suggests that layoffs have bottomed out and that more hiring will be needed to spur job growth.”

In other words, relatively speaking companies are sticking with the people they have and, to this point, aren’t taking on too many new people.

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