June 26, 2014

Initial Unemployment Claims (062614): 312K SA; Raw Claims Down 10% From Same Week Last Year

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 8:23 am

Predictions:

  • Business Insider — 310,000 seasonally adjusted claims, down from last week’s 312,000 (to be possibly revised this week; Update: Revised to 312K).
  • Bloomberg — same.

Seasonal adjustment factors:

  • Week ended June 21, 2014 — 97.4
  • Week ended June 22, 2013 — 97.6

Raw claims:

  • Week ended June 14, 2014 — 300,193 (before possible revision; Update: Revised to 301,337)
  • Week ended June 22, 2013 — 336,901

To meet or beat the predictions above, raw claims will need to be 302,000 or lower (302K divided by .974 is 310K, rounded). That means basically no change from last week.

That seems about right, but we’ll see here at 8:30.

HERE IT IS:

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending June 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 312,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 2,000 from 312,000 to 314,000. The 4-week moving average was 314,250, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 311,750 to 312,250.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 304,169 in the week ending June 21, an increase of 2,832 (or +0.9 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected an increase of 4,076 (or +1.4 percent) from the previous week. There were 336,901 initial claims in the comparable week in 2013.

There’s not a lot of drama here. The result is basically what was expected and didn’t change much from last week.

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4 Comments

  1. Given the delinkage between jobless claims (both initial and continuing) and employment levels/the larger economy, I’m beginning to think jobless claims no longer really matter.

    Comment by steveegg — June 26, 2014 @ 9:45 am

  2. I think jumps would be really damning, while continuing at the current level is, as you noted, inconclusive.

    Comment by Tom — June 26, 2014 @ 11:16 am

  3. “delinkage”? How about none at all? Context Tom, Context!!!!!

    Study: All Employment Growth Since 2000 Went to Immigrants

    http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/381362/study-all-employment-growth-2000-went-immigrants-nro-staff

    This is insult to injury, not only have full time positions been replaced with part timers, the part timers are mostly illegals and green card holders!

    Comment by dscott — June 27, 2014 @ 5:36 pm

  4. Thanks for that. Have been meaning to go to that all day, and haven’t get a chance (i.e., didn’t carve out the chance).

    Comment by Tom — June 27, 2014 @ 6:12 pm

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