- Business Insider — 310,000 seasonally adjusted claims, down from last week’s 312,000 (to be possibly revised this week; Update: Revised to 312K).
- Bloomberg — same.
Seasonal adjustment factors:
- Week ended June 21, 2014 — 97.4
- Week ended June 22, 2013 — 97.6
- Week ended June 14, 2014 — 300,193 (before possible revision; Update: Revised to 301,337)
- Week ended June 22, 2013 — 336,901
To meet or beat the predictions above, raw claims will need to be 302,000 or lower (302K divided by .974 is 310K, rounded). That means basically no change from last week.
That seems about right, but we’ll see here at 8:30.
HERE IT IS:
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA
In the week ending June 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 312,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 2,000 from 312,000 to 314,000. The 4-week moving average was 314,250, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 311,750 to 312,250.
… UNADJUSTED DATA
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 304,169 in the week ending June 21, an increase of 2,832 (or +0.9 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected an increase of 4,076 (or +1.4 percent) from the previous week. There were 336,901 initial claims in the comparable week in 2013.
There’s not a lot of drama here. The result is basically what was expected and didn’t change much from last week.