The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $439.9 billion, an increase of 0.2 percent (±0.5)* from the previous month, and 4.3 percent (±0.9) above June 2013. Total sales for the April through June 2014 period were up 4.5 percent (±0.7) from the same period a year ago. The April to May 2014 percent change was revised from +0.3 percent (±0.5)* to +0.5 percent (±0.2).
Before rounding, the increase was 0.245 percent, if that makes anyone feel better.
Expectations were for a 0.6 percent gain. The May upward revision provides some solace, but not much.
The raw (undadjusted) May-June decrease was 5.59 perent. The May-June decrease in 2013 was 5.07 percent. Perhaps that can be explained away by noting that June 2013 had 10 weekend days and June 2014 had nine. I don’t the GDP calculations care about that.
It looks like if second-quarter GDP is going to be decent, significant contributors are going to have to come from somewhere besides personal consumption expenditures.