Today’s durable goods report showed that the seasonally adjusted value of June shipments rose 0.1%.
Knowing orders is useful for gauging the future, but what goes into GDP is what is shipped/sold. This quarter’s rundown was +0.1% April, -0.1% May, and +0.1% June — before inflation, which was certainly greater than the 0.1% sum of the three months.
Meanwhile, over in consumer spending land, the markets were spooked by Amazon’s larger than expeted second quarter loss, its much larger forecast loss in the third quarter, and Visa’s weak second quarter.
Meanwhile monthly new-home sales have trailed the same month froma year for four out of the past five months.
So where is this 3 percent GDP growth going to come from?