August 8, 2014

It Begins: The First Reason Why 2Q14 GDP’s Will Likely Be Revised Down

Filed under: Economy — Tom @ 10:22 am

From Zero Hedge (link is in original):

Against expectations of a further rise in inventory build of 0.7%, wholesale inventories rose only 0.3% in June (the same pace as in May) missing by the most since February 2013With GDP now basically an exercise in inventory expansion and contraction (Q2 inventory estimate amounte to 40% of GDP), this ‘miss’ offers little hope for the initial Q2 rebound to hold its exuberance. In addition, wholesale sales also missed (up only 0.2% against expectations of a 0.7% rise) with growth slowing for the 3rd month in a row.

The government’s wholesale inventories report is here.

The true (i.e., unadjusted, raw, actual) change in June inventories was -1.1%.

That initial 4.0% annualized figure for 2Q14 just got tenuous.


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