August 14, 2014

Initial Unemployment Claims (081414): 311K SA; Raw Claims Only 5% Below Same Week Last Year

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 8:26 am

Predictions:

Seasonal Adjustment Factors:

  • Week ended August 9, 2014 — 86.4
  • Week ended August 10, 2013 — 85.9

Raw Claims:

  • Week ended August 2, 2014 — 247,133
  • Week ended August 10, 2013 — 282,756

To achieve or beat the predictions, raw claims will need to be 255,000 or lower (255K divided by .864 is 295K, rounded).

If things are moving along swimmingly, that’s what we’ll get.

We’ll see here at 8:30.

HERE IT IS (permanent link): Well, well, a little trouble in paradise —

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending August 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 311,000, an increase of 21,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 289,000 to 290,000. The 4-week moving average was 295,750, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 293,500 to 293,750.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 268,837 in the week ending August 9, an increase of 20,960 (or 8.5 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected an increase of 2,317 (or 0.9 percent) from the previous week. There were 282,756 initial claims in the comparable week in 2013.

That’s a bit of a surprise, but last week seemed artificially low, so maybe this week averaged out last week.

A lot was made of how supposedly wonderful the JOLTS report a day or two ago was in showing so many open jobs, which are at a 13-year high. The logical question would be, “Why aren’t they being filled?”

Today’s news puts a bit of a damper on that.

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