August 28, 2014

Initial Unemployment Claims: 298K SA; Raw Claims 9% Below Same Week Last Year

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 7:03 am

Prediction: Bloomberg predicts 300,000 seasonally adjusted claims, up a bit from last week’s 298,000.

Seasonal Adjustment Factors:

  • Week ended August 23, 2014 — 83.4
  • Week ended August 24, 2013 — 83.2

Raw Claims:

  • Week ended August 16, 2014 — 248,759 (before likely revision)
  • Week ended August 24, 2013 — 279,803

For today’s report to come in at 300K or below, raw claims will need to be 250K or below (250K divided by .834 is 300K, rounded. That looks like an even bet to occur.

We’ll see what happens here at 8:30. I’ll cover it after I look at the GDP report which is coming out at the same time.

HERE IT IS:

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending August 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 298,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 298,000 to 299,000. The 4-week moving average was 299,750, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 300,750 to 301,000.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 248,622 in the week ending August 23, a decrease of 841 (or -0.3 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected no change from the previous week. There were 279,803 initial claims in the comparable week in 2013.

The result is in line with expectations. We’ll have to wait a week to see if these low claims numbers translate into a lower unemployment rate.

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