November 2014 Employment Situation Summary (120514)

Note: Competing obligaions will prevent me from noting or commenting on today’s results until late afternoon or early evening.

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UPDATE: 321,000 jobs were added and the unemployment rate is still at 5.8 percent — But Household Survey employment only increased by 14,000. Both not seasonally adjusted benchmarks noted below were missed (497K actual vs. 600K benchmark in nonfarm, and 380K vs. 450K in the private sector.

To the extent that the administration got the shaft in October’s seasonal adjustments in the Establishment Survey, that completely reversed itself in November.

The Household Survey told us that seasonally adjusted full-time employment dropped by 150K in November. Incredibly, full-time employment is STILL 2.4 million below where it was in November 2007 (seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted) — seven long years ago. But yet, wer’re supposed to believe that Obama administration policies, and particularly Obamacare, have nothing to do with this incredibly depressing statistic.

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Econ catchup:

• ISM Manufacturing — 58.7 percent, down only slightly from 59.0 percent
• ISM Non-Manufacturing — 59.3 percent, up from 57.1 percent; this is was the opposite of another services-related report which indicated slower growth.
• Vehicle Sales — up by 4.6% over November of last year; Chrysler continues to steal the show.
• ADP — 208,000 jobs added

Predictions:

• Associated Press, yesterday — 225,000 jobs added
• Bloomberg — 230,000

Not seasonally adjusted benchmarks:

October’s results actually exceeeded the benchmarks here, and the seasonally adjusted numbers understated the raw numbers’ strength.

Here are this month’s benchmarks:

• 600,000 nonfarm jobs added.
• 450,000 private sector jobs added.

The report will be here at 8:30.