June 11, 2015

Seasonally Adjusted Retail Sales Jump: Horse Manure; Year-Over-Year Wholesale Sales Still Trail

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 2:03 pm

Here’s why I don’t buy the supposedly fantasmagorical jump in retail sales:


The smallest actual April to May percentage increase in the past four years somehow generated the BEST seasonally adjusted increase — by miles.

Horse manure.

Additionally, the year-over-year unadjusted May 2015 increase over May 2014 is just under 1 percent. After seasoning, it rounds to 2.7 percent.

Again — Horse manure.

The press’s and pundits’ hosannahs for today’s retail sales results are misplaced.

Given the fact that the Bureau of Economic Analysis uses seasonalized retail sales (and not the raw data) in compiling GDP, it is certainly vulnerable to a charge that it’s using tainted source data.

As to wholesale inventories, they went up by 0.4 percent. The trouble is that year-over-year sales are still in serious decline:


April’s seasonally adjusted figure is 3.4 percent last July’s peak.

Seasonal chicanery aside, these are not indications of anything resembling a strong economy.



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