June 11, 2015

Seasonally Adjusted Retail Sales Jump: Horse Manure; Year-Over-Year Wholesale Sales Still Trail

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 2:03 pm

Here’s why I don’t buy the supposedly fantasmagorical jump in retail sales:

RetailSalesJanToMay2010to2015

The smallest actual April to May percentage increase in the past four years somehow generated the BEST seasonally adjusted increase — by miles.

Horse manure.

Additionally, the year-over-year unadjusted May 2015 increase over May 2014 is just under 1 percent. After seasoning, it rounds to 2.7 percent.

Again — Horse manure.

The press’s and pundits’ hosannahs for today’s retail sales results are misplaced.

Given the fact that the Bureau of Economic Analysis uses seasonalized retail sales (and not the raw data) in compiling GDP, it is certainly vulnerable to a charge that it’s using tainted source data.

As to wholesale inventories, they went up by 0.4 percent. The trouble is that year-over-year sales are still in serious decline:

WholesaleSalesJanToApril2013to2015

April’s seasonally adjusted figure is 3.4 percent last July’s peak.

Seasonal chicanery aside, these are not indications of anything resembling a strong economy.

Share

2 Comments

  1. [...] question, echoing my post yesterday: To show just how much of an outlier May 2015 was compared to May in prior years, here is the [...]

    Pingback by BizzyBlog — June 12, 2015 @ 3:13 pm

  2. [...] I wrote at my home blog on Thursday afternoon, it’s more than a little difficult to understand how “the [...]

    Pingback by BizzyBlog — June 14, 2015 @ 11:33 pm

RSS feed for comments on this post.

Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.