‘Unexpectedly’: 255,000 Private-Sector Jobs Go ‘Poof!’; No Rate Change at the Fed
From the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
The preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision indicates a downward adjustment to March 2015 total nonfarm employment of -208,000 (-0.1 percent).
Unanswered question: I wonder how many of those overcounted jobs were full-time?
The press is blaming a “weak global economy” for the Federal Reserve’s decision not to raise interest rates today.
Horse manure.
As seen above, the employment situation isn’t as “strong” as once thought. Retail sales are tepid. Industrial production is in decline. Economic growth in general remains anemic. Manufacturing and trade sales are down, while inventories are bloated. Consumer spending and consumption in general are propped up by borrowing (student loans, car loans) and welfare state subsidies (food stamps, Obamacare subsidies) — and the increases here are still unimpressive.
74-1/2 months after the recession’s official end, the Federal Reserve clearly believes (this isn’t their quote, but it’s their belief) that “our financial system (has) weaken(ed) to the point where a quarter of a percent increase in rates is more than it can handle.”
It’s not just the “financial system.” It’s the entire flippin’ economy.
The Establishment survey doesn’t differentiate between full-time and part-time jobs, so that question will go unanswered.
The “-0.1% of all jobs” is a bad attempt at spin by the BLS. If the preliminary revisions hold, a 208K non-farm drop would be a 6.7% over-report of the 3,084K jobs the BLS claimed were created between March 2014 and March 2015, with a 255K private-payroll drop being an 8.4% over-report of the 3,021K yearly job gain originally claimed.
Comment by steveegg — September 18, 2015 @ 1:53 pm
Both obviously good points. And I will concede that the Household Survey could still be “right” even after the write-down, supposedly meaning there are more self-employed and gig economy people.
Comment by Tom — September 18, 2015 @ 9:16 pm
[...] a torrent of weak economic data in the past two weeks (more on that in a post later this morning), two of the [...]
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