October 8, 2015

Initial Unemployment Claims (100815); 263K SA; Raw Claims (228K) 12 Pct. Below Same Week Last Year

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 8:38 am

From the Department of Labor:

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending October 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 263,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 1,000 from 277,000 to 276,000. The 4-week moving average was 267,500, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 250 from 270,750 to 270,500.

… UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 227,659 in the week ending October 3, an increase of 12,543 (or 5.8 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected an increase of 24,608 (or 11.4 percent) from the previous week. There were 257,545 initial claims in the comparable week in 2014.

So far, initial claims aren’t showing any evidence of picking up. This situation combined with the clear slowdown in net hiring seen in the past two months’ employment reports (especially in the raw data) tells us that employers are in wait-and-see mode — largely sticking with the people they have and not taking on as many new employees as they were previously.

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