September Advance Durable Goods: Orders Down 1.2 Pct., Sales Up 0.2 Pct.; August Numbers Revised Downward

Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted decline of from 1.3 percent to 2.0 percent, continuing an awful run in this area of the economy.

We’ll see here at 8:30.

HERE IT IS (permanent link; bolds are mine):

New orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in September decreased $2.9 billion or 1.2 percent to $231.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down two consecutive months, followed a 3.0 percent August decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 2.0 percent.

Transportation equipment, also down two consecutive months, led the decrease, $2.2 billion or 2.9 percent to $75.5 billion.

Shipments

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in September, up three of the last four months, increased $0.4 billion, or 0.2 percent, to $242.5 billion. This followed a 0.5 percent August decrease.

Transportation equipment, also up three of the last four months, drove the increase, $0.5 billion or 0.6 percent to $81.0 billion.

… Inventories

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in September, down four of the last five months, decreased $1.3 billion, or 0.3 percent, to $399.4 billion. This followed a 0.2 percent August decrease.

… Revised August Data

Revised seasonally adjusted August figures for ALL manufacturing industries were: new orders, $471.3 billion (revised from $473.0 billion); shipments, $479.4 billion (revised from $480.1 billion); unfilled orders, $1,194.1 billion (revised from $1,195.0 billion); and total inventories, $647.8 billion (revised from $648.4 billion).

August’s revisions to durable goods and total manufacturing were all or almost all downward, meaning that the only reason September’s advance durables decline was lower than expectations is that August was worse than originally thought.

The carnage continues — as does the press’s pretense that all is still generally well.

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UPDATE: Zero Hedge (bolds are theirs) —

ggg After a significant downward revsision to August’s data (to -2.3% MoM), September Durable Goods New Orders dropped 1.2% (better than the expected 1.5% drop only due to historical revisions) for the 5th monthly drop this year. Year-over-Year, Durable Goods orders tumbled 3.6%, accelerating weakness from August amid major revisions. This is the 6th consecutive YoY drop, something not experienced outside a recession. Under the covers it was just as ugly with Non-defense, ex-aircraft orders dropping 0.3% (notably missing expectations) after a huge downward revision for August. What is most worrisome, however, is the collapse in Core Capex YoY down 7.9% NSA – the worst since 2009.

UPDATE 2: Here’s a detailed look at the ugliness —

How one gets to even 1 percent genuine annualized GDP growth out of all of this remains a mystery.