October Durable Goods: Orders Up 3.0 Pct. (But Down Slightly ex-Aircraft), Shipments Down 1.0 Pct.; Raw Numbers Are Worse

A mixed bag, but with more coal than presents, from the Census Bureau:

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in October increased $6.9 billion or 3.0 percent to $239.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, followed a 0.8 percent September decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 3.2 percent.

Transportation equipment, also up following two consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, $6.1 billion or 8.0 percent to $82.1 billion.

Shipments

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in October, down two of the last three months, decreased $2.5 billion, or 1.0 percent, to $240.1 billion. This followed a 0.2 percent September increase.

…  Inventories

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in October, down five of the last six months, decreased $0.7 billion, or 0.2 percent, to $397.4 billion. This followed a 0.6 percent September decrease.

The good news on orders is that they went up. The not-so-good news is that but for the big increase in the volatile nondefense aircraft and parts (+$7.8 billion), net orders in all other sectors declined by $0.9 billion.

Not seasonally adjusted October orders of $240.2 billion trailed October 2014 by 1.0 percent. This is seventh straight year-over-year monthly decline.

Not seasonally adjusted October shipments of $246.2 billion trailed October 2014 by 1.7 percent. This is a rare year-over-year decline in this area — only the second in the almost six years, and the biggest such decline since December 2009.

The inventory come-down is necessary from a business standpoint, but it’s probably going to hurt fourth-quarter GDP.

Overall, the trends here are decidedly not our friends.