January 7, 2016

Initial Unemployment Claims (010716): 277K SA; Raw Claims (405K) Down 8 Pct. From Same Week Last Year

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 8:31 am

Predictions: 270,000 to 273,000 seasonally adjusted claims, down from last week’s 287K, which was influenced by an artificially low seasonal adjustment factor.

Here’s today’s report from the Department of Labor:

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending January 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 277,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 287,000. The 4-week moving average was 275,750, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 277,000.

… UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 405,122 in the week ending January 2, an increase of 58,580 (or 16.9 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected an increase of 74,423 (or 21.5 percent) from the previous week. There were 439,342 initial claims in the comparable week in 2015.

Given that last week included New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day, it’s hard to glean much that is meaningful from today’s news. Next week, the first full week of business of the new year, will be far more telling.

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