March 8, 2016

Tuesday’s Primaries: Trump Wins MI, MS; Cruz Takes ID; Sander Wins MI(!)

Filed under: Taxes & Government — Tom @ 11:43 pm

UPDATE, March 9, 8:45 a.m.:

  • Trump wins the Hawaii caucuses with 42 percent of the vote. Cruz was second with 33 percent.
  • Cruz’s hold on second in MI seems secure (8,000-vote lead on Kasich with 97 percent counted).
  • Cruz’s victory margin in ID grew a bit overnight. Near-final results are Cruz-Trump-Rubio-Kasich 45-28-16-7.
  • Sanders’ victory margin in MI shrunk a bit to 19,400, but his win is secure.

Exit question: Did the Dem pollsters in MI, who predicted a 21-point Clinton victory, really screw up that badly, or were they hopelessly in tank for Hillary?

___________________________________

I’m late to tonight’s returns because of other commitments, but it seems like several important matters are still far from settled.

First, though, what is settled:

  • Donald Trump has won MI.
  • Trump and Hillary Clinton have won Mississippi. Hillary Clinton has over 80 percent of the vote with 95 percent counted, crushing Bernie Sanders in a state almost certain to go Republican in November. Trump has 47 percent, Cruz 37 percent. Kasich and Rubio are completely eating dust.

Now to the night’s additional developments, the most recent first.

12:28 a.m: Signing off. Not waiting for Hawaii. Final note, via AP: “Bernie Sanders breathed new life into his longshot White House bid with a crucial win in Michigan’s primary Tuesday night.” Memo to AP: He’s not a longshot any more.

12:23 a.m: It’s a little early to declare it as a fact, but it looks like Cruz will hold onto second place in MI over Kasich. He has a 6,000-vote lead with 95 percent counted.

12:00 a.m: I had headlined Cruz winning ID based on a press email I received as well as Drudge’s headline, even though NBC hadn’t yet flagged him as the winner. Now it has, and it’s Cruz. The rundown, with 44 percent counted, is Cruz-Trump-Rubio-Kasich 42-29-18-7.

11:55 p.m.: While waiting for absolute Dem finality in MI, let’s note that Clinton had a 21-point lead in pre-election polls. Sanders’ performance, even if Clinton by some miracle catches up, is truly a jaw-dropper. 11:57 p.m.: I’m admitting that a Clinton comeback is so close to being mathematically impossible that it’s not going to happen. Sanders wins MI — a total game-changer. 12:08 a.m.: Clinton is taking Wayne County, where Detroit is, by only 60-38 with 91 percent counted. She’ll probably narrow Sanders’ victory margin, but she has zero chance of making up the vote deficit.

11:54 p.m.: The complete MS GOP rundown is Trump-Cruz-Kasich-Rubio 48-36-9-5. This has to be embarrassing for Rubio.

11:52 p.m.: Sanders’ lead in MI is 22,000 votes with 96 percent counted. Clinton needs to take 75 percent of the remaining votes. It’s almost a done deal, but as I said, if the returns are from Detroit, given Clinton’s level of African-American support, you still can’t completely rule out a comeback.

11:50 p.m.: The GOP drama in MI is who gets second. Trump’s 37 percent is fairly impressive. Cruz has a 5,000-vote lead on Kasich. Both candidates are at 25 percent of the vote.

11:45 p.m.: In what is being called “a stunning upset,” the press is saying that Bernie Sanders has defeated Hillary Clinton defeated Hillary Clinton in MI. He’s up by 2 points and 20,000 votes. Clinton would have to win 70 percent of the remainder. Depending on where the remaining returns are coming from, I wouldn’t rule out a Clinton comeback just yet. Detroit has swung elections like these before.

Obamacare’s Medicaid Clawback: It’s a Shock, Because the Press Has Virtually Ignored It

Beginning early in 2014, shortly after its initial diastrous rollout, there has been a virtual blackout on anything resembling negative coverage of the “Affordable Care Act,” aka Obamacare.

It hasn’t been due to a lack of horror stories: plan cancellations, shocking rate increases, shrunken provider networks, co-ops going out of business, etc. It’s because the nation’s establishment press has worked mightily to minimize their exposure and to avoid dealing with their larger significance, calling them “glitches,” “tricky situations” and the like, while mostly ignoring individual local nightmares. Now several Minnesota residents, clearly kept in the dark until now about something yours truly and several others on the center-right warned of in late 2013, have learned that Obamacare has saddled their children with tens of thousands of dollars in debt.

(more…)

Positivity: Who was Elizabeth of the Trinity? The story behind a new saint

Filed under: Positivity — Tom @ 9:20 am

From Vatican City:

Mar 8, 2016 / 03:03 am

Pope Francis acknowledged a miracle worked through the intercession of Blessed Elizabeth of the Trinity, a Carmelite nun of the 20th century, paving the way for her canonization likely later this year.

“The Lord has chosen to answer her prayers for us…before she died, when she was suffering with Addison’s disease, she wrote that it would increase her joy in heaven if people ask for her help,” said Dr. Anthony Lilles, academic dean of St. John’s Seminary in Camarillo.

Lilles earned his doctorate in spiritual theology at Rome’s Angelicum writing a dissertation on Bl. Elizabeth of the Trinity.

“If her friends ask for her help it would increase her joy in heaven: so it increases Elizabeth’s joy when you ask her to pray for your needs,” he told CNA. “That’s the first reason (to have devotion to her): the Church has recognized the power of her intercession.”

Bl. Elizabeth of the Trinity was born in France in 1880, and grew up in Dijon close to the city’s Carmelite monastery. Lilles recounted that when one time when Bl. Elizabeth visited the monastery when she was 17, “the mother superior there said, ‘I just received this circular letter about the death of Therese of Lisieux, and I want you to read it.’ That circular letter would later become the Story of a Soul; in fact, what she was given was really the first edition of Story of a Soul.”

“Elizabeth read it and she was inclined towards contemplative prayer; she was a very pious person who worked with troubled youth and catechized them, but when she read Story of a Soul she knew she needed to become a Carmelite: it was a lightning moment in her life, where everything kind of crystallized and she understood how to respond to what God was doing in her heart.”

Elizabeth then told her mother she wanted to enter the Carmel, but she replied that she couldn’t enter until she was 21, “which was good for the local Church,” Lilles explained, “because Elizabeth continued to work with troubled youth throughout that time, and do a lot of other good work in the city of Dijon before she entered.”

She entered the Carmel in Dijon in 1901, and died there in 1906 – at the age of 26 – from Addison’s disease.

Elizabeth wrote several works while there, the best-known of which is her prayer “O My God, Trinity Whom I Adore.” Also particularly notable are her “Heaven in Faith,” a retreat she wrote three months before her death for her sister Guite; and the “Last Retreat,” her spiritual insights from the last annual retreat she was able to make.

Cardinal Albert Decourtray, who was Bishop of Dijon from 1974 to 1981, was cured of cancer through Bl. Elizabeth’s intercession – a miracle that allowed her beatification in 1984.

The healing acknowledged by Pope Francis March 4 was that of Marie-Paul Stevens, a Belgian woman who had Sjögren’s syndrome, a glandular disease.

In 2002 Stevens “had asked Bl. Elizabeth to help her manage the extreme discomforts of the pathology she had, and in thanksgiving, because she felt like she had received graces … she travelled to the Carmelite monastery just outside Dijon,” Lilles said. “And when she got to the monastery, she was completely healed.” …

Go here for the rest of the story.

Tuesday Off-Topic (Moderated) Open Thread (030816)

Filed under: Lucid Links — Tom @ 9:20 am

This open thread is meant for commenters to post on items either briefly noted below (if any) or otherwise not covered at this blog. Rules are here.