May 3, 2016

Trump Immediately Wins Indiana Primary; Hillary and Bernie in Tight Duel; UPDATE: Sanders Wins, Cruz Suspends

Filed under: Taxes & Government — Tom @ 7:39 pm

That was quick.

Donald Trump has been declared the Indiana Primary winner, and is leading the field 54-35-9 (Cruz 2nd, Kasich 3rd) with 25 percent of the votes counted.

John Kasich’s next-door neighbor status as Governor of Ohio didn’t prove particularly helpful, did it?

Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are deadlocked right now with 20 percent of the vote counted.

The guess here is that late-counted ballots from Northwestern Indiana, particularly Gary, will carry Mrs. Clinton over the top. Such late-counted ballots enabled Barack Obama to nearly defeat Mrs. Clinton in 2008. This time I think they’ll be her salvation — but we’ll see.

It looks like the GOP turnout will top the Democrats’ turnout by a large margin. Update, May 4: The differential is stunning. GOP turnout will probably top 1.1 million. Dem turnout is on track to be about 675,000.

UPDATE: Sanders wins Indiana 53-47 (with 81 percent counted), per the press. Clinton would have to win about 61 percent of the remaining votes to catch up. That call is probably OK, though I suspect it will tighten when all ballots are counted.

The real news here is that Sanders, as the Democratic Party winner, is on track to pull in far fewer votes than … Ted Cruz, who suspended his campaign tonight. Hillary Clinton, the supposed presumptive and virtually self-appointed Democratic Party nominee, will get almost 100,000 fewer votes than Cruz.

UPDATE 2, May 4: Sanders’ lead is 5.5 points with 93% counted. As Ann Althouse observed, “CNN talk is all about Trump but the big news is Hillary’s humiliation.”



  1. Bernie hanging in there strengthens my theory that there is a June surprise. Hillary will be indicted probably on corruption charges regarding her time as Secretary of State in connection with the Clinton Global Initiative donations that appear to occur sequentially with favorable policy from State approving certain things that coincidentally prove very profitable for the donor.

    Comment by dscott — May 4, 2016 @ 4:49 pm

  2. BTW – the whole MSM chatter about a contested Republican convention was to give cover to a Democrat contested convention as a liberal moral equivalency excuse. The Democrat convention will be contested and Biden will be brought in to rescue the Democrat Party.

    Comment by dscott — May 4, 2016 @ 4:52 pm

  3. I’ve heard several people with the Biden theorem. I think it might be Liz Warren.

    Comment by Tom — May 4, 2016 @ 5:32 pm

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