May 10, 2016

Press Virtually Ignores Rendell’s ‘Have to Behave’ Comment Directed at Sanders Supporters

Ed Rendell, the chairman of this year’s Democratic National Convention, stepped in it bigtime in a Sunday interview with billionaire businessman and radio talk show host John Catsimatidis. He got in even deeper trouble with supporters of candidate Bernie Sanders when he tried to explain himself.

Though there’s plenty of hostility in the Republican Party these days, there’s no shortage of it among Democrats either. Rendell’s comment that supporters of Bernie Sanders “have to behave” has raised the vehement ire of the Vermont senator’s supporters, but has drawn almost no establishment press attention.

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Right After Polls Close, Sanders Declared West Virginia Primary Winner

Filed under: Taxes & Government — Tom @ 8:53 pm

As seen here.

The only question is how great the margin will be over Hillary Clinton.

For those who are actually counting primary and caucus wins instead of assuming a Clinton coronation, this means that Sanders has won (in alpha order, starting with March 22) the following 10 states (not wasting time with territories): AK, HI, ID, IN, RI, UT, WA, WI, WV, WY.

Meanwhile, during the same period, Mrs. Clinton has won six states: AZ, CT, DE, MD, NY, PA.

My result isn’t population- or turnout-weighted, but Sanders’ victory margins have averaged 34.4 points (not including WV tonight, which is not yet known, but won’t change the average by much; Update: A 10-point win by Sanders, which is where he stands with 37 percent of the vote counted, would bring the average down to 32.0 points). Mrs. Clinton’s have averaged 16.5 points.

The “Clinton has more votes” crowd is conveniently ignoring that six of Sanders’ 10 recent victories have been in caucuses, while none of Hillary’s have. This begs the question: Why do more dedicated Democrats like Sanders so much more, or dislike Mrs. Clinton so much more?

A back-of envelope estimate of what true primary results might have been if the caucus states had held primaries indicates that Sanders’ victory margins expressed as a percentage of those states’ total population (roughly 2.2 percent) would have been greater than Mrs. Clinton’s actual percentage margin as a percentage of the population in the six states she won (roughly 1.7 percent). There are obviously better metrics that would require more digging than I’m willing to do right now. I’m taking that position because they won’t reverse the key point here, which is that Sanders has undeniably outperformed Hillary Clinton since March 22, even after taking into account her victories in the two large-population states of NY and PA.

Has a “presumptive nominee” of either party ever faltered like this in the later primaries? I doubt it.

UPDATE, 9:35 p.m.: At the Fiscal Times — “A Quinnipiac University poll found Sanders performs better than Clinton against presumptive GOP candidate Donald Trump in crucial swing states.”

Tuesday Off-Topic (Moderated) Open Thread (051016)

Filed under: Lucid Links — Tom @ 7:30 pm

Have been under the weather today. Sorry this daily open thread went up so late.

This open thread is meant for commenters to post on items either briefly noted below (if any) or otherwise not covered at this blog. Rules are here.

Positivity: Classy Move by Indiana Pacers Player Paul George

Filed under: Positivity — Tom @ 5:55 am

From Indianapolis:

PaulGeorgeFrankVogel050816