July 8, 2016

Some People Are Pleased With What Happened in Dallas Last Night

Filed under: Taxes & Government — Tom @ 11:57 am

December 2014NYC protesters chant for dead cops (see some of the weasels try to take their obvious words back here):

August 2015Black Lives Matter Protesters Chant ‘Pigs In A Blanket, Fry ‘Em Like Bacon!’ (chanters here later claimed it was in a “Playful Context”)

Last night (tweet link):


Also, this: “Huffington Post (and others) Urged Violent Protests”

All of the parties involved expressed wishes for, encouraged or celebrated violence, some up to and including murder.

They got their way last night, so they must be pleased with what has happened, and the results.

And they are despicable human beings.

June 2016 Employment Situation Summary: 287K Jobs Added, Unemployment Rate Increases to 4.0 Percent; May Written Down to 11,000

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 9:00 am

From the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a supposed spike in employment, beating artificially low expectations of 175,000 – 180,000 which didn’t seem to take the Verizon strike into account (permanent link with all tables):

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 287,000 in June, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth occurred in leisure and hospitality, health care and social assistance, and financial activities. Employment also increased in information, mostly reflecting the return of workers from a strike.

Household Survey Data

The unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage point to 4.9 percent in June, and the number of unemployed persons increased by 347,000 to 7.8 million. These increases largely offset declines in May and brought both measures back in line with levels that had prevailed from August 2015 to April.

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult women (4.5 percent) and Whites (4.4 percent) rose in June. The rates for adult men (4.5 percent), teenagers (16.0 percent), Blacks (8.6 percent), Asians (3.5 percent), and Hispanics
(5.8 percent) showed little or no change.

The number of persons unemployed less than 5 weeks increased by 211,000 in June, following a decrease in the prior month. At 2.0 million, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) changed little in June and accounted
for 25.8 percent of the unemployed.

… Both the labor force participation rate, at 62.7 percent, and the employment-population
ratio, at 59.6 percent, changed little in June.

… Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 287,000 in June, after changing little in May (+11,000). In June, job growth occurred in leisure and hospitality, health care and social assistance, and financial activities. Employment also rose in
information, largely reflecting the return of workers from a strike.

Leisure and hospitality added 59,000 jobs in June, following little employment change in the prior month. In June, employment increased in performing arts and spectator sports (+14,000), after edging down in May. Employment in food services and drinking places changed little over the month (+22,000). Job gains in leisure and hospitality have averaged 27,000 per month thus far this year, down from an average of 37,000 in 2015, reflecting slower job growth in food services and drinking places.

Health care and social assistance added 58,000 jobs in June. Health care employment increased by 39,000 over the month. Job gains occurred in ambulatory health care services (+19,000) and hospitals (+15,000), about in line with average monthly gains
over the prior 12 months in each industry. Within social assistance, child day care services added 15,000 jobs in June.

Employment in financial activities rose by 16,000 in June and has risen by 163,000 over the year.

Employment in information increased by 44,000 in June. Employment rose in telecommunications (+28,000), largely reflecting the return of workers from a strike. Employment increased in motion picture and sound recording industries (+11,000), after a decrease of similar magnitude in May.

Employment in professional and business services continued to trend up in June (+38,000). Thus far this year, the industry has added an average of 30,000 jobs per month, compared with an average monthly gain of 52,000 in 2015.

Employment in retail trade edged up by 30,000 in June, after changing little over the prior 2 months. In June, job gains occurred in general merchandise stores (+9,000) and in health and personal care stores (+5,000). Retail trade has added 313,000 jobs over the year.

Employment in mining continued to trend down in June (-6,000). Since reaching a peak in September 2014, mining has lost 211,000 jobs.

Employment in other major industries, including construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, and government, showed little or no change in June.

In June, the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was 34.4 hours for the fifth consecutive month. The manufacturing workweek (40.7 hours) and manufacturing overtime (3.3 hours) were also unchanged over the month. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.6 hours.

In June, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up (+2 cents) to $25.61, following a 6-cent increase in May. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.6 percent. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 4 cents to $21.51 in June.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised from +123,000 to +144,000, and the change for May was revised from +38,000 to +11,000. With these revisions, employment gains in April and May combined were 6,000 less, on net, than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 147,000 per month.

More later, after a closer look. …

Not seasonally adjusted results: Following the worst May performance since the recession, June’s raw results were strong:


June’s raw job additions overall were the most added in a June since 1999, when 726,000 raw jobs were added, while private-sector additions were the highest since 2005′s 1.114 million private-sector job adds. In each instance, you could easily argue that the seasonally adjusted result should have been 100,000 to 150,000 higher. Readers may recall that I suggested in May, as did others, that one could argue that the seasonally adjusted figures probably should have been about 70,000 lower than reported.

If I would have had the chance to benchmark June, I would have said the that the economy needed to add 650,000 jobs overall, and 1.05 million in the private sector. Both of June’s raw numbers (682K and 1.086 million, respectively) exceeded those after-the-fact benchmarks.

It’s hard to believe that May was really as bad as reported, and Mark Zandi at Moody’s gave a reason why it may have been inaccurate in yesterday’s ADP conference call, namely that company participation in the underlying surveys was unusually low. That said, it’s also hard to believe that June was as strong as reported today. Zandi’s explanation notwithstanding, it’s awfully convenient to have a strong jobs number heading into the Democratic convention.

Also note that, as of now and pending another revision next month, the economy reportedly lost private-sector jobs in May for the first time since February 2010.


UPDATE: Other notes (references are to seasonally adjusted figures unless otherwise indicated) —

  • The participation rate edged up and the employment-population ration went down by 0.1 points, respectively.
  • The Household Survey shows that employment grew by only 67,000. Also, not seasonally adjusted employment only increased by 396,000 in June (compared to the 682,000 in the Establishment Survey). Looking back further, Household Survey employment is up by only 23,000 since February, after increasing by 1.877 million during the previous four months. Say what?
  • The civilian labor force, at 158.88 million, is slightly below where it was in February (158.89 million). However, on a raw basis, the labor force increase by 1.335 million from May to June, blowing away what we’ve seen in previous years. This seems to have occurred because the change from April to May was historically very low. So the two results seem to offset each other.
  • The volatile full-time/part-time numbers showed FT employment up by 451K and PT employment down by 491K. Yes, that’s a net decrease. Going back a bit further, FT employment since February is up by 380K and PT employment is down by 408K. Yeah, that’s also a net decrease over four months.
  • We keep on hearing that wages are rising. Mark Zandi trumpeted that claim once again yesterday’s ADP conference call. Too bad the numbers don’t support it. Hourly earnings, at $25.61, are up just 8 cents in the past two months. That’s a 0.3 percent increase, or less than 2 percent annualized. Average weekly earnings, at $880.98, is only up $2.83 in the past five months, an annual rate of 0.77 percent.

Overall: Unless July proves otherwise, it seems safe to say that the economy is clipping along at a 150,000 per month seasonally adjusted jobs added pace, that May’s weakness and June’s strength offset each other, and that there’s no compelling reason to believe that June’s strong numbers presage unusual strength going forward.

Friday Off-Topic (Moderated) Open Thread (070816)

Filed under: Lucid Links — Tom @ 6:00 am

This open thread is meant for commenters to post on items either briefly noted below (if any) or otherwise not covered at this blog. Rules are here.

Positivity: Gun Owner Thwarts Attempted Robbery at Rose Garden

Filed under: 2nd Amendment,Positivity — Tom @ 5:55 am

From Eugene, Oregon:

It all started as a casual stroll for a couple on a date through the Owen Rose Garden but it ended with one man behind bars and another being hailed a hero.

Jason Rorex said he was walking through the Own Rose Garden on a date Sunday afternoon, when a man asked him for money. When Rorex refused he said the man pulled out a knife.

“I was just really concerned about what was going to happen next. I was worried about our lives really, and our safety,” said Rorex.

He said he flashed his gun at the suspect who then put the knife in his pocket and walked away.

“And then I was just relieved like Katie was … that I had my pistol with me so that I knew he couldn’t do anything at that point,” added Rorex.

He said his date then called the police. …

Go here for the rest of the story.

Rorex’s Facebook post, as carried at Gateway Pundit:

On Sunday my girlfriend and me were walking in a busy park, midday, when a person asked us for money. I said we do not give money out. He then pulled a knife on us and began to rush us from about seven feet away. I luckily had a firearm with me and was fortunate enough to resolve the situation without a shot being fired. I did have to draw my firearm and aim it at the armed attacker. He immediately stopped his attack, and was arrested minutes later. I feel this story speaks to the safety and reliability a firearm offers for self defense. Our local ABC station ran the story and actually represented what happened accurately. The support has been amazing and even people who are anti-gun are applauding the outcome. This seems like a relevant story in the midst of the anti-gun propaganda being pushed relentlessly by main stream media.
Go here for the rest of the Facebook post.