Hillary Clinton has a six-point lead over Donald Trump in a poll where 47 percent of respondents say they voted for Barack Obama in 2012, 33 percent for Mitt Romney and 5 percent for “other,” when “other” got 1.7 percent of the vote in that year (!).
Addtionally the poll’s sample was 45 percent Democrats (22-10-13 strong-not strong-indie lean) and 37 Republicans (15-10-12), and thus 32-25 self identified Dems and Reps.
Gallup says the Dems’ party affilation lead is 31-27 (3 points lower than NBC/WSJ), while many many other polls show Trump ahead fairly handily among independents.
If all Mrs. Clinton can get is a six-point lead out of a skewed sample which found Obama voters by a 10-point greater margin than the 3.9 percent he won by in 2012, we’re either in a statistically dead heat, or Trump’s slightly ahead.
The good news for Mrs. Clinton is that this horse-manure poll will artificially inflate the Real Clear Politics average by about a point for the next 7-10 days.
Meanwhile, Rasmussen shows Trump with a 5-point lead, and isn’t in the RCP average. Imagine that.