September 27, 2016

One Set of State Polls Says Trump Is Winning the Electoral College

Filed under: Taxes & Government — Tom @ 11:01 pm

This is within-margin-of-error stuff, so it’s not definitive, but it’s the first time I’m aware of that one polling organization effectively has Trump winning the Electoral College, and therefore the presidency.

Start with the 2012 Electoral College map:

2012ElectoralCollegeMap

Then consider the results posted today by UPI for the following six states:

Set 1: VA +4, FL +4, IA +2

Set 2: NC +3, OH +1, PA +1

Five of those six states are flips from blue to red (NC is not a flip), adding 86 electoral votes to Mitt Romney’s 2012 total of 206. Hillary Clinton isn’t flipping any red states to blue with UPI. So that gives Trump 292, a majority of the 538 available electoral votes.

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