October 19, 2016

What WaPo Giveth Hillary Nationally, It Taketh Away in Key States (UPDATE: IBD Has Trump Up, Rasmussen Tied)

As noted earlier this week, Washington Post/ABC polling shows Hillary Clinton with a 4-point, 47-43 lead over Donald Trump — readings identical to mid-July.

Well now, imagine this: Post/Survey Monkey polling shows Trump up in nearly enough battleground states won by Hillary Clinton to win the election if Mrs. Clinton fails to turn any red states blue (which seems likely but far from certain.

The four states involved (FL, OH, IA and NV) have 59 electoral votes. Added to Mitt Romney’s 2012 total of 206, Trump victories in those four states while holding elsewhere would leave him 5 EVs short of the 270 needed for victory.

Given the shortcomings of polling, particularly their 8 percent to 10 percent completion rate after initial contact, this doesn’t demonstrate anything but that the race is far from over, despite the press constantly pushing the “Trump is badly trailing” narrative.


UPDATE: Investor’s Business Daily’s poll, which if I recall correctly has had a good record in the past two presidential elections, has Trump up by 1, 41-40. The shocker is that Hillary is so low, which seems to indicate that a significant cadre of leftists is resisting in favor of Jill Stein.

UPDATE 2: Rasmussen is in a tie.


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