February 28, 2017

4Q16 Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Estimate (022717): Annualized 1.9 Percent; Full Year Is 1.6 Percent, Full Obama Era is 1.5 Percent Annually

Filed under: Economy,Taxes & Government — Tom @ 9:11 am

From the Bureau of Economic Analysis (link with tables):

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016 (table 1), according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.5 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was also 1.9 percent. With the second estimate for the fourth quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; the increase in personal consumption expenditures was larger and increases in state and local government spending and in nonresidential fixed investment were smaller than previously estimated

The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending. These increases were partly offset by negative contributions from exports and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected a downturn in exports, an acceleration in imports, and a downturn in federal government spending that were partly offset by an upturn in residential fixed investment, an acceleration in private inventory investment, and an upturn in state and local government spending.

2016 GDP

Real GDP increased 1.6 percent in 2016 (that is, from the 2015 annual level to the 2016 annual level), compared with an increase of 2.6 percent in 2015 (table 1). Revisions to 2016 real GDP from the advance estimate did not affect the 1.6 percent rate of increase.

Updated detail coming shortly.

HERE IT IS:

GDPcomponentsThru4Q16at022717

The entire story here is, as seen above, that health care spending increased by over 3-1/2 times as much in the second estimate compared to the first (0.66 points vs. 0.18 points). Yet health care wasn’t even mentioned in the government’s narrative, even though health care effectively crowded out most other spending on services.

Most other elements declined slightly, leaving zero net change from the first estimate.

As a result, this is an even weaker ending to the Obama era than was seen a month ago.

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1 Comment

  1. How pathetic. With $10 Trillion borrowed and $3 Trillion printed over 8 years, an average of $1.625 Trillion per year of a $16 Trillion dollar economy, they can only show 1.5% average growth?

    $1.625 T is over 10% of our GDP. Minus that juicing, we’ve been in negative growth for the entirety of the Obama administration.

    They can pump out all the BS statistics and ignore reality, but people know how they’ve fared under Obama.

    Obama famously told Joe the plumber that “if you spread the wealth around its good for everybody”, which we now know was an utter lie. It was only good for his cronies, the 1%ers, and those on the dole.

    Comment by Opinionated Vogon — February 28, 2017 @ 9:55 am

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