April 8, 2017

Saturday Off-Topic (Moderated) Open Thread (040817)

Filed under: Lucid Links — Tom @ 5:55 am

This open thread is meant for commenters to post on items either briefly noted below (if any) or otherwise not covered at this blog. Rules are here.

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  1. ANALYSIS of the Gorsuch vote
    —————————-

    Starting the week, the SCOTUS count for the (D) vote was this:
    2 oppose a filibuster (ND, WV)

    6 more were needed of 10 undecided to overcome a filibuster. Only 1 became a Yes vote:
    Donnelley (IN), another farm-values state

    A link to the official vote count provides some insight. Using the “By Home State” sorting, we learn Ohio was 1 of 8 states to split their vote. These are states where the senators are contradicting each other in how to represent their constituents, always an interesting way to study the votes and use for spin-off supplemental research.

    I’ve listed the 8 split votes here, adding the year by whichever one is up first for re-election, and resorting from alphabetical to the reelection year: Class I,II,III.

    Class I: (2013-2019), re-elect in 2018
    Nearly all the splits appear here. Very interesting data set.

    Ohio:
    Brown (D-OH), Nay (Class I = 2018 campaign)
    Portman (R-OH), Yea

    Florida:
    Nelson (D-FL), Nay (Class I = 2018 campaign)
    Rubio (R-FL), Yea

    Maine:
    Collins (R-ME), Yea
    King (I-ME), Nay (Class I == 2018 campaign)

    Missouri:
    Blunt (R-MO), Yea
    McCaskill (D-MO), Nay (Class I=2018 campaign)

    Montana:
    Daines (R-MT), Yea
    Tester (D-MT), Nay (Class I=2018 campaign)
    {Really surprised here with farmer Tester.
    Note Heitkamp (D-ND) voted Yea.
    Both represents low-population rural states with 2 Senators and 1 Representative. }

    Pennsylvania:
    Casey (D-PA), Nay (Class I == 2018 campaign)
    Toomey (R-PA), Yea

    Wisconsin:
    Baldwin (D-WI), Nay (Class I=2018 campaign)
    Johnson (R-WI), Yea

    Class II: (2015-2021) ———–
    NA

    Class III: (2017-2023) ———–
    Colorado:
    Bennet (D-CO) Nay, (just barely re-relected)
    Gardner (R-CO), Yea

    One anachronism ————–
    Georgia:
    Isakson (R-GA), Not Voting (health issue)
    Perdue (R-GA), Yea

    A few anecdotes from one news source, where Roberts Rules of Order can provide a bit of insight into Senate floor gameplay:

    - Senator Grassley, Judiciary Chair, requested the quorum call for the floor vote.

    - Senator Rand Paul (R, KY) apparently provided the 51-vote at time 11:43.

    - “Joe Donnelly, Joe Manchin, and Heidi Heitkamp crossed over to support Gorsuch, as pledged. Colorado’s Michael Bennet voted against his state’s favored son — again, as pledged, although Bennet opposed the filibuster.”
    Prediction: The Colorado Senator race will be a Top Priority (if not the top priority) for the NRA-ILA campaign.
    Observation: Bennet’s vote can be explained very simply — He’s being positioned to run for President. A 2-time Senator re-elected in a mixed state (rural and urban, farm-values and gun-rights voters, social liberals such as marijuana and protect-the-environment).
    Hmmph, the CO Secretary of State site doesn’t make it easy to find the 2016 results, so will use CNN.com.
    Hillary Clinton won Colorado, 48% to Trump 43% with 3rd-party Libertarian Johnson taking 5%. In the CO-Senate race, Bennet did better than Hillary, taking 50.0% votes > Hillary 48%. His opponent Glenn took 44.3% > Trump 43%, ao also slight better than his party’s Presidential candidate. The ‘county results map’ has no obvious meaning. The urban corridor (Colorado Springs to Denver to Boulder) is not all blue. There is something to watch here, but don’t know what.

    - An observation by hotair.com
    “The most puzzling part of this was the missed opportunity to leverage the traditionalism of several Republicans in the Senate. Clearly a few of their colleagues across the aisle did not want to do go nuclear; John McCain grumbled about it to the bitter end. …McCain [AZ], Susan Collins [ME], and Lisa Murkowski (AK) wouldn’t have signed up to change the rules for [more controversial names on Trumps judicial nominees list]”

    REFERENCES:

    https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=115&session=1&vote=00111

    http://www.senate.gov
    then Reference, Terms of Servide,
    Class I, II, III lists

    http://hotair.com/archives/2017/04/07/breaking-gorsuch-confirmed-to-supreme-court-54-45/

    https://www.denverite.com/sen-michael-bennet-votes-cloture-fellow-democrats-pass-40-vote-threshold-filibuster-gorsuch-33119/

    https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/MT
    Why is the MT Rep seat currently vacant? Oh, their Rep became Pres Trump’s Secretary of Interior. Special election to be held May 25. This is as close as you can get to a proxy on the Voters reaction to the Gorsuch vote. Here is the place with the Special Election official announcement, and the place to watch for official results:
    https://sos.mt.gov/elections

    http://www.cnn.com/election/results/states/colorado#senate

    Comment by Cornfed — April 8, 2017 @ 11:43 pm

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