April 18, 2017

(UPDATE: Moved to Semi-Live Blog) GA-06 Special Election: Dems’ Darling Doesn’t Live in the District

9:30 p.m.: Turning this post into a semi-live blog.


(Results link is here.)

April 19, 7:20 a.m.: Ossoff ended up with 48.10 percent, and there will be a runoff against Karen Handel, who got about 20 percent. That’s a decent enough showing for Handel that the June 20 faceoff between the two will be heated indeed.

11:50 p.m.: Going to have to go to bed, as Fulton County (which I believe is suburban portions of the county, and leans more Dem than the other two counties, but which I believe is still majority GOP in registration) has problems:

Fulton County officials said due to data error from one of the cards, they will have to manually go through hundreds of cards to find the culprit. The Fulton Elections Chair did not give a timeline.

So Drudge, unless he has inside info he hasn’t revealed, will be left hanging for hours wondering if he’s really right.

11:30 p.m.: Nothing has changed … (smh)

11:15 p.m.: It’s been just under an hour, and only 2 precincts have been counted in that time. Grrr. One might be tempted to think that a Democrat Secretary of State is withholding bad news, but Georgia’s SOS is a Republican. I’m sick of this. Going to catch up on sports for about 10 minutes, and will be back.

11:00 p.m.: The Times is conceding that “Our guess he (Ossoff) gets 45%; needs 49. Seems small, but very hard.” Why it’s only “49″ and not 50 makes no sense, unless they mean 49 percent of the rest of the votes. They have not called the race.

10:55 p.m.: None of Drudge’s three links have a below-50 percent call, but his “Runoff in June” headline remains.

10:45 p.m.: Well, the problem is that Chrome doesn’t refresh the state results properly. So I’m using Safari for results, and hope it refreshes properly. As of now, though (zheesh), no new news.

10:40 p.m.: Somehow the New York Times has slightly more up-to-date numbers than the State of Georgia, and Ossoff is down to 50.3 percent. Update: The state site now matches. They’ve counted 2 precincts in the past 45 minutes. They have almost 100 left. Surely they can move faster than this.

10:30 p.m.: Drudge is headlining there will be a runoff in June, but the AP story to which he is linking doesn’t say that, and Ossoff still clings to a 50.43 percent majority (which hasn’t changed for about the past 30 minutes). I have found no evidence of a call yet.

10:25 p.m.: Got interrupted by news-related phone calls, but here’s the latest. With just over half of the precincts counted, Ossoff is barely above 50 percent. That said, he’s been there for some time even as the most recent votes came in, so it could be that bluer precincts are the ones which haven’t been counted.

I didn’t get to my main grip before, and I will now. These results, regardless of the ultimate outcome, prove that the nation’s move towards no-excuses “early voting” has been a horrible mistake that should be (but I bet never will be) undone.

Tens of thousands of GA-06 voters cast their ballots, likely without knowing that Ossoff doesn’t live in their district. A number of previous polls have shown that not living in the district is a deal-killer for a significant minority of voters (I want to say 20 percent just to be conservative, but I think it has generally been higher). Thus, in this case, early voting was hugely uninformed voting compared to what was known on Election Day (it always is; it’s just a question of how uninformed). That’s why balloting should be limited to Election Day except for the absentee-balloting reasons that were present over a decade ago — and please don’t waste my time with dishonest arguments about how Election Day balloting discriminates against certain groups. It’s hogwash, and the people making those arguments know deep-down that it’s hogwash.

9:55 p.m.: At this point, the State of Georgia website is showing Democrat Ossoff with 51 percent of the vote with about one-third of precincts counted. But he appears (emphasis: appears) well on his way to dropping below the magic 50 percent threshold. Before any precincts were counted, i.e., with absentees and early voting, he had 68 percent. I wish I would have taken a screen shot. In other words, Election Day voters are by my back-of-envelope estimate giving him 40 percent or even less of the vote. (Update: Later info indicates that it’s more like 42 percent.)

Everyone expected Ossoff to do well in early voting, but the 68 percent exceeded almost all expectations.


Well, well. Democrat Jon Ossoff, running for Congress in Georgia’s Sixth Congressional District, doesn’t live in GA-06.

Regardless of party, this blog has always considered a congressional candidate’s failure to live in the congressional district involved an automatic disqualifier.

So should the voters who really live in GA-06.

The good news is that we now know this.

The bad news is that The Hill and CNN (HT Hot Air) reported it — on Election Day, or perhaps last night.

This leads to the far worse news that the Georgia Republican Party and its various operatives, with NO OTHER NATIONAL OFFICE RACES to monitor; the national Republican Party, with all of its resources; and all of the District’s Republican candidates — who know that if Ossoff somehow gets half the vote today, it’s over — didn’t figure out that he doesn’t live in GA-06, meaning that he can’t even vote for himself in today’s election.

I wonder how long the local left-leaning media has known this, and not reported it? UPDATE: Apparently it’s been known for some time, and I stand corrected in that sense. I’d still argue that it only became known today, if they were even paying attention, to the majority of those who voted early.

Tuesday Off-Topic (Moderated) Open Thread (041817)

Filed under: Lucid Links — Tom @ 6:00 am

This open thread is meant for commenters to post on items either briefly noted below (if any) or otherwise not covered at this blog. Rules are here.

Positivity: Kansas project helps clients escape the predatory loan cycle

Filed under: Positivity — Tom @ 5:55 am

From Salina, Kansas:

Apr 17, 2017 / 04:10 pm

In 2015, Shannon found herself swimming in debt from a title loan. She faithfully made the $200 monthly payments. Unfortunately, the entire $200 went to interest.

“I kept paying the interest on it and wasn’t getting anywhere,” she said.

None of it went to pay down the original $900 loan.

“The first time I took a loan out, I was behind on rent,” Shannon said. “Then something else came up and it got out of control. I could never see getting myself out of the hole. I thought the loan would be a burden that would be over me forever.”

The Kansas Loan Pool Project, which began in 2013, has assisted 127 people get out of predatory debt. The program is a collaboration with Sunflower Bank in which the predatory debt is refinanced into a traditional loan. In all, more than $80,000 worth of debt has been refinanced through the program. …

Go here for the rest of the story.